FSU Basketball to welcome No. 6 Duke Blue Devils in home ACC opener

Florida State gets to play its first game of the New Year on Saturday, as it'll welcome the Duke Blue Devils to Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon. FSU is coming off a valiant effort against UNC on the road on Tuesday, and now they get to face their biggest rival.

Like UNC, Duke has had a great start to the season, and they have a player who is bound to go in the top five of the 2026 NBA Draft with the way he's playing. But Duke has a few extra horses in the barn who make them one of the premier threats in college basketball. And that could make this game an interesting one.

This game will be at 3:45 p.m. EST on CBS from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Dec 30, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Alex Steen (25) on the free throw line in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

#6 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown (12-1 Overall, 1-0 ACC)

Duke is in their fourth season under head coach Jon Scheyer, who has improved their NCAA Tournament standing every year. They lost in the Round of 32 his first year, in the Elite 8 his second year, and in the Final Four last year. And they look primed to make another Final Four run.

They were undefeated until the final game before Christmas, when they lost to Texas Tech in Madison Square Garden, blowing a 17-point second-half lead. However, they've also secured some impressive wins over Michigan State, Kansas, Texas, Florida, and Arkansas. These last two games have shown some cracks in the armor, as they lost to Texas Tech, then only beat a really bad Georgia Tech team by six at home. GT actually led for most of the first half, and Duke could never quite pull away in the second.

Analytically, they're pretty impressive. They're shooting 62.7% on twos as a team, dominate the glass, teams struggle to score against them from anywhere, and they do a great job of not fouling. Really, their only "weakness" is that they're not an amazing free-throw shooting team, and I don't trust them as three-point shooters. Isaiah Evans is a better shooter than his 33.3% from deep shows, but I also don't think Cameron Boozer is as good a shooter as his 35.8% shows. So, it's a give-and-take.

They play pretty fast on offense, which means this could be a very high-tempo game. This is the highest rate at which Duke has ever shot threes, but they do a good job of passing the ball around to generate those open looks. Even though I don't really trust them as shooters, you still have to respect them for how much they're shooting it. They're also a deep team, consistently playing 9 players.

Cameron Boozer has been absolutely ridiculous, as the son of the Duke legend and former NBA All-Star is leading college basketball in scoring at 23.5 PPG while also averaging 10.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.7 SPG while shooting 56.5% from the floor, 35.8% from three, and 76% from the free-throw line. He's going to be a contender for national player of the year and will probably go top three in the draft.

Isaiah Evans returned for a second season and has seen his numbers double across the board. He isn't shooting it as well from three, but he's still averaging 12.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 1.5 APG. He's there to score, and that's it, but he does it well.

Patrick Ngongba also returned for a second season and has seen a massive spike in his numbers, as he's up to 11.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 1.5 BPG after hardly touching the floor as a freshman. He's filled in well after Khaman Maluach left for the NBA.

Caleb Foster is the team's "point guard," but he's only averaging 2.8 APG, which is third on the team. behind the Boozer twins. He is shooting it really well from three, but he does a good job of delegating scoring responsibilities to others, and yet, he's still at 9.2 PPG.

Cayden Boozer has not been quite as productive as his twin brother, as he's really struggled to shoot from three. But he's been a versatile player, being able to guard multiple positions, scoring around the basket, and is a good playmaker. You'd expect his rebounding to be better, but that hasn't happened.

Dame Sarr has started 8 of the team's 13 games, but he's been wildly inefficient in scoring the basketball. Maliq Brown has been incredibly efficient inside the arc as an undersized forward. Nikolas Khamenia is there to shoot threes and that's about it. And Darren Harris is also firing away from deep.

Dec 31, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts during the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils won 85-79. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-7 Overall, 0-1 ACC)

Florida State is coming off a good effort against UNC on Tuesday night, losing by 13 on the road in the first ACC game of the Luke Loucks era. Obviously, losing by double digits isn't what you want, but it was a hard-fought effort that didn't fall apart besides a five-minute stretch near the middle of the second half. You have to be nearly perfect to beat good teams, and FSU just wasn't good enough.

However, if they perform with that kind of effort for the rest of ACC play, they're going to beat some teams they're not supposed to. Will that happen in this game? I doubt it, but stranger things have happened.

For them to pick off superior opponents, their best players have to play their best. Robert McCray V was fine, but he had 7 turnovers. He's going to have the ball in his hands a lot, as Loucks said after the game, but he can't turn it over that often. He also needs to be better at driving against length. He can be a little loose with the ball, and the longer defenders with athleticism can give him some issues.

Chauncey Wiggins can also be an irritating player. In the first half against UNC, he was just 1/7 from the floor. He's the only player with significant ACC experience on this team, so they need him to play well.

Kobe MaGee has also started to find a groove off the bench, shooting 36.4% from deep over his last eight games. He's been a nice lift off the bench as they continue to look for consistent shooting.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Duke

G: Caleb Foster
G: Isaiah Evans
G: Cayden Boozer
F: Cameron Boozer
C: Patrick Ngongba

Keys to the Game

Win the Interior

Florida State has not been a great rebounding team this year, mostly due to personnel, and they're about to go up against a very strong rebounding team. Duke is coming down with 37.7% of their own misses while only allowing an offensive rebounding rate of 26%. However, in their one loss, Texas Tech held them to an offensive rebound rate of just 20.7%, Duke's lowest mark of the season.

Duke is also one of the best two-point shooting teams in the country, thanks to Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba. Even Cayden Boozer and Caleb Foster are great at attacking the interior. While Foster and Isaiah Evans are great shooters, the focus has to be on stopping easy baskets inside more than anything.

Cameron Boozer's Effectiveness

Cameron Boozer is an animal, and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.5 PPG (leads college basketball), 10.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.7 SPG while shooting 56.5% from the floor and 35.8% from three. He's going to get his, but if FSU can find a way to get him in foul trouble or keep him off the glass, they're going to give themselves a great chance to compete in this game.

Hey, Make Your Threes

Florida State is going to shoot threes. They've been very clear that it's how they're going to play. But if they're going to win, they have to make shots. They were able to generate a lot of open looks in the second half against UNC, but very few went in (5/21). If FSU is going to win, they have to shoot at least 40% from three, which is asking for a lot considering that they've only shot 40% or better from three in one game, and that was the first one of the year.

Game Prediction

Duke is favored by 15.5 points with an over/under of 163.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I think this is going to be a hard game for Florida State to win. They just don't have the talent on the interior to hang with Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba. But people often go all out to try and beat Duke, and the 'Noles do have another week off after this game before NC State comes to town. But Duke has the MASSIVE talent advantage, and that's going to be too much to overcome.

Duke 87, Florida State 70

Stick with NoleGameday for more FREE coverage of Florida State Football throughout the offseason

Follow NoleGameday on and Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok

More Florida State News

FSU football reaches 15 portal departures as roster turnover continues

Five offensive players FSU football must retain for the 2026 season

FSU football could land quarterback transfer from rival

FSU football losing former top running back recruit to transfer portal