Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Florida State returns home after a tough loss to Louisville on Saturday to take part in ESPN's Big Monday. It's a big opportunity for FSU as they'll play North Carolina, who isn't as good as people projected coming into the season.

There are only four regular season games left for Leonard Hamilton's tenure at Florida State and he's searching for his 200th ACC win. Could the North Carolina native pick up that 200th against UNC?

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

North Carolina Tar Heels Breakdown (17-11 Overall, 10-6 ACC)

North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) brings the ball up the court in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

North Carolina hasn't had the season they expected when RJ Davis announced he'd be returning to school. They are 3-5 on the road in ACC play this season, with the wins coming against Notre Dame (a game they were gifted by the officials), NC State (a tight win), and Syracuse. Those three wins are against teams that are a combined 15-33 in ACC play. Florida State is a little better than that.

RJ Davis is still leading the way at 17.3 PPG, but his three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this season. Not having a capable big on the floor has impacted him more than anyone. He shot 39.8% from deep on 7.7 3PA last season but is down to 30.5% on 6.7 3PA. He's still capable of big shooting performances, but he's made just 4/21 from deep in the last three games. Florida State will want to keep him off the free-throw line, as UNC is 4-8 when he attempts three or fewer free throws, which can be an issue for the Seminoles.

Freshman Ian Jackson is the second-leading scorer at 13.7 PPG, though he's been coming off the bench the last few games. He's a good athlete and a great isolation scorer, shooting 47.6% from the floor and 40% from three. Jackson has only had 11 games scoring 10 or fewer points, and UNC is 4-6 in those games (three of those wins were against Elon, La Salle, and Dayton).

Seth Trimble has also come off the bench recently but is still averaging 11.8 PPG. He entered the transfer portal before the season but decided to return to Chapel Hill and has seen a massive uptick in production. He's a below-average three-point shooter but is lethal inside the arc.

Elliot Cadeau has grown as a scorer but he has been wildly loose with the ball, averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. Still not a great shooter, and UNC does worse when he shoots more. He has 11 games with 10+ shot attempts and Carolina is just 3-8 in those games. Let him shoot if it means RJ Davis is taking fewer shots. He fouls way too much for a guard.

I'll loop all of the frontcourt together. Jalen Washington has been lackluster, averaging 6.2 PPG and 4.6 RPG. He's also been fouling way too much, averaging 5.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Jae'Lyn Withers has been around for about eight years, it feels like. He's a versatile, undersized defender who has found a three-point shot, shooting 45.8% from deep this season. Ven-Allen Lubin is in the same vein as Washington, but he's started the last few games.

Drake Powell is the last player to know about. Another freshman, and while his offensive game isn't as smooth as Jackson's, he's the better athlete and defender of the two. He's a solid three-point shooter at 37.7%, but he just doesn't shoot them a lot.

UNC's defense isn't as good as their metrics on KenPom suggest. Their interior defense can be beaten by size, something Florida State has a lot of. And their three-point defense is just about average nationally, something FSU could look forward to, as they've struggled to shoot recently. The Tar Heels aren't nearly as good of a rebounding team as we're used to seeing out of them, but they still get a lot of success from the offensive glass.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (16-11 Overall, 7-9 ACC)

Florida State Seminoles forward Malique Ewin (12) shoots against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Florida State had a tough loss on Saturday against Louisville, as a bad first half doomed them. They had 12 turnovers and shot just 1/9 from the three-point line in the first 20 minutes, but a strong second half gave them a chance. They only had two turnovers in the second while holding Louisville to 2/9 from three. But they couldn't keep UL off the free throw line, as the Cards shot 34 free throws in the game. That was too much of a differential to overcome.

Malique Ewin was spectacular for the second game in a row: 19 points, 9 rebounds, 9/10 FGs. And while he only finished with a couple of assists, he had a few more assist chances that resulted in missed open looks. Florida State would like to play the offense through him, but teams are doing a lot to take him away whenever possible. Miami and Louisville didn't have great interior presences, and neither does UNC.

They'll need some more from Taylor Bol Bowen this game, who hasn't played too well since hitting the game-winner at Wake Forest, combining for 7 points on 3/21 shooting over the last three games. He's still providing quality defense with seven blocks and three steals in that time, but he has to provide more offense to open driving lanes for Jamir Watkins and the guards.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

North Carolina

G: Elliot Cadeau
G: RJ Davis
G: Drake Powell
F: Jae'Lyn Withers
F: Ven-Allen Lubin

Keys to the Game

Defensive Rebounding

North Carolina is famous for its offensive rebounding historically, and while the Tar Heels are having their worst offensive rebounding season since before Roy Williams coached there, they still get a lot of success from the offensive glass.

UNC is 11-1 when they come down with at least 33.3% of their own misses and that one loss was to Duke. If FSU wants a win, it starts with closing defensive possessions with rebounds.

Interior Offense

For the first time in what feels like forever, North Carolina doesn't have a great interior presence. Jalen Washington hasn't been reliable on the inside, Ven-Allen Lubin hasn't been much better, and Jae'Lyn Withers is undersized. Florida State could have an advantage on the inside.

UNC is 13-1 when their opponent shoots below 50% on the interior, and that one loss was to Auburn, arguably the best team in the country. They only have four wins when their opponent shoots 50% or better inside the arc, and three of those were at home. FSU has to be able to get inside and convert in this game.

Malique Ewin

Piggy-backing off the last key, Malique Ewin has to have a big game. He's coming off a phenomenal week: 43 points, 14 rebounds, 19/20 FGs. He was doing that against teams that don't have great interior play in Miami and Louisville, and UNC isn't much better on the inside in terms of personnel. But Ewin also hasn't done well against physicality at times; this could be a chance for him to reverse that.

Game Prediction

North Carolina is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 155.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I actually think this could be a good matchup for Florida State. RJ Davis has given them some fits in years past, averaging 20.8 PPG against the Seminoles in the last five matchups. But no one else on the roster should scare FSU. Given FSU's interior advantage, having the homecourt, and UNC's struggles on the road, I've got the Seminoles in a tight one.

Florida State 77, North Carolina 75

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