Three key matchups that will decide FSU football's game vs. Virginia Tech

I said last week that the Florida State Seminoles are an enigma. But I'd like to retract that statement.

They're just consistently inconsistent. One week, they can't stop the run. The next week, they can't stop the pass. Next week, they can't catch the ball. And their 4-5 record reflects that.

However, they now face a 3-6 Virginia Tech Hokies team who have only played two games on the road so far this season.

We'll attempt to break it down.

Many fans will be making the trek to the Sunshine State's capital to see their Seminoles take on the Virginia Tech Hokies. If you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday night – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. Florida State Linebackers vs. Virginia Tech QB Kyron Drones

Oct 11, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers running back Ja'Kyrian Turner (25) runs the ball for a touchdown past Florida State Seminoles linebacker Omar Graham Jr. (9) in the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Whether FSU comes out in the 3-3-5 or the 4-3, the second line of defense will have to do its best to contain Kyron Drones as a runner. The VT QB is the Hokies' second-leading rusher with 499 yards.

He also leads the Hokies in rushes attempted with 127 in comparison to Marcellous Hawkins at 98.

Kyron Drones is going to get the ball.

If the Seminoles cannot get pressure and keep Drones within the tackle box, especially on third down, it could be a much closer game than Vegas is predicting.

FSU opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but that number has been blown open and now sits at 13.5 points.

2. Florida State Wide Receivers vs. Themselves

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) celebrates a pass catch during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

As NoleGameday's Tommy Mire reported following the loss to Clemson, the game against the Tigers in Death Valley was defined by four drops and a fumble.

This cannot happen again.

Now, drops haven't been nearly as big a factor as they were last year, as the Seminoles were notorious for their butter fingers in 2024. However, should the problem fester, it could be the difference between winning and losing, as well as making or not making a bowl game.

It seems like a simple fix. But tell that to the 2024 team. A lot of times, it comes back to fundamentals.

The Hokies rank 71st nationally in passing yards allowed per game. FSU will need to look the ball in all the way in order to take advantage through the air.

3. Florida State Offense vs. Virginia Tech Red Zone Defense

Florida State football — Nov 8, 2025; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles receiver Lawayne McCoy (7) celebrates with teammates after scoring against the Clemson Tigers during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard - GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | Ken Ruinard - GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Florida State ranked third in total offense, yet they find themselves 4-5. While occasional drops or inopportune penalties or turnovers can be a cause for the overall record, red zone conversion percentage can also be a major factor.

What good does all those yards do if you can't put points on the board?

The Florida State Seminoles are ranked 63rd in red zone scoring percentage. Now, that obviously isn't the worst, but in comparison to the overall efficiency of the offense, it is a glaring data point.

The good news for FSU is that the Hokies are tied for second-worst in the country in red zone defense.

Their defense has allowed 17 trips in the red zone and has given up points on 16 of those attempts. The bad news for the 'Noles within that data set is that the Hokies have given up more field goals than touchdowns (9 to 7).

If VT can keep FSU out of the endzone and make this a game until the final drive, the Seminoles could be in trouble like they were against Clemson and Stanford.

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