What Does SP+ and ESPN's FPI Project for Georgia Tech vs Pitt?
Advanced metrics have not been kind to Georgia Tech Football this year (Western Carolina game aside) and that is not changing this week.
The betting markets are projecting a big victory for the Pitt Panthers this week, but they are not the only ones. Two of the most popular analytical systems used in college football are projecting something similar.
One thing that is tough to factor into these projections is how Georgia Tech will handle the coaching change. Offensive line coach Brent Key is taking over as the interim head coach and there could be some added wrinkles to this team that the projections can't project.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
The ESPN FPI is giving Pitt a 90.6% chance to win the game. FPI has given every Georgia Tech opponent (except Western Carolina) at least an 85% chance to win.
Nobody is giving Georgia Tech a chance vs Pitt this weekend
It is a similar outlook for ESPN's Bill Connelly, who uses his own analytical system called SP+.
Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:
"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
For this weekend vs Pitt, SP+ is projecting Pitt to win by 23 points and giving the Panthers a 91% chance to win.
It will be interesting to see what kind of energy this team plays with coming off of such a tumultuous week. Hopefully, Key and the rest of the coaching staff have the team ready to go for their second straight road game.
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