3 Reasons Illinois Will Beat UConn in the Final Four

Illinois, the No. 3 seed out of the South Region, and UConn, the No. 2 seed out of the East Region, have each survived and advanced through four rounds of NCAA Tournament action. But only one can move on from their Final Four clash scheduled for Saturday night (5:09 p.m. CT, TBS) and climb to the final, big-boss stage of the national title game.

Can the Illini, who haven’t made a national championship appearance since 2005, prevail? Here are three reasons that the answer is yes – and one that says no.

Three reasons Illinois beats UConn in Final Four

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) and forward Ben Humrichous (3) celebrate after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Illini have a talent advantage over the Huskies

Few coaches are more lauded for their offensive abilities than UConn’s Dan Hurley. His offenses are the embodiment of poetic beauty on the hardwood, as he’s a mastermind at creating a continuous, free-flowing scheme predicated on off-ball movement and drawing up brilliant set plays.

Yet somehow Hurley's Huskies offense ranks last in adjusted efficiency (per KenPom) among the tournament's remaining teams – and by a couple country miles. All three of the other Final Four entrants rank among the top five in the category, with Illinois pacing the group at No. 1. UConn's rank? All the way down at No. 28.

The primary explanation: something less than the usual pop in individual talent than Hurley is accustomed to. Five Huskies average double-digit scoring, but none are particularly dominant in any capacity – though center Tarris Reed Jr. has been in this NCAA Tournament (more on that later).

On the flip side, Illinois has perhaps the most talented unit in the nation, as well as a coaching staff adept at putting its players in the best positions to score, which has resulted in the nation’s top-rated offense. The Illini have high-IQ, selfless players, each of whom can go get a bucket at will.

UConn may be helpless to stop Illinois on the offensive glass

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) shoots against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second half during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Brad Underwood has always emphasized rebounding – specifically on the offensive end. Year in and year out, the Illini are at or near the top in that category, and 2025-26 is no different. In fact, Illinois has somehow elevated its game in that department to an even higher level in the NCAA Tournament.

Twenty, 12, 12 and 16 are the Illini's offensive rebounding totals through four games, respectively. Meanwhile, UConn, which lacks great size – save for Reed – has been vulnerable on the defensive glass, yielding double-digit offensive rebounds against both Michigan State and Duke while ultimately losing the overall battle of the boards by an average of 7.5 in those two games.

Illinois’ size, physicality and relentless effort should be on display against the relatively undersized Huskies on Saturday, which immediately puts UConn at a potentially insurmountable disadvantage.

The Ivisic twins are capable Tarris Reed Jr. stoppers

Without Reed, UConn would have almost certainly suffered an ignominious first-round exit. Instead, the Huskies are in the Final Four, with much thanks to Reed’s monster 31-point, 27-rebound performance in the opening round. Then he tossed in an “off night” of 10 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks vs. UCLA before posting 20 points, five boards, four assists, a steal and two blocks in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State. In the Duke comeback victory, Reed single-handedly willed his club forward with 26 points, nine rebounds and three assists.

All of that raw data is head-turning, but the eye test was even more impressive. UConn lived through its big man Reed (especially against Duke), who dominated through sheer force of will on the low block while also making the right passes – and at the most opportune times.

That said, the Illini have a pair of interior defenders more than able and willing to accept the challenge of Reed. Zvonimir Ivisic, who comes off the bench for his twin brother, Tomislav, is one of the nation’s premier shot blockers (usually in help-side) but also a severely underrated one-on-one post defender. Tomislav, meanwhile, is a brick wall on the lower block, rarely yielding an inch to opposing big men before often getting a stellar contest.

Even sturdy freshman forward David Mirkovic (clocks in at 255 pounds) could be a potential option for Reed. Long story short, Illinois hasn’t had trouble keeping opposing bigs at bay (aside from Texas Tech’s JT Toppin), despite seeing a number of uber-talented ones in the Big Ten. Reed will do some damage, but he won’t be the demise of the Illini.

Why UConn can beat Illinois in the Final Four

Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) reacts against the UCLA Bruins in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Huskies' veteran experience can carry them past the Illini

They say freshmen can’t win in March. Yet Illinois, which is led by freshman guard Keaton Wagler and heavily supported by Mirkovic, has made a run to the Final Four. That said, the goal is to win two more. And to do that, Illinois must get past a tremendously experienced UConn team.

Among the Huskies' top five scorers, just one (freshman Braylon Mullins) isn’t an upperclassman. And two of those players aren’t just any run-of-the-mill upperclassman. Senior forward Alex Karaban has won two national championships and is playing in his fourth NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Solo Ball has also won a national title and is in the midst of his third March Madness run. Also, there is head man Hurley. He has been there and won that – again, twice.

All that experience revealed itself on Sunday night against a young Duke squad. UConn, the paragon of poise and confidence, clawed back from down 19 and capitalized on Blue Devils mistakes to advance to the Final Four, displaying that often unquantifiable “championship DNA."

There may not be any readily available statistics to back it up, but we’ve seen it time and again: experience matters in March. And there’s not a remaining squad with more of it than UConn.