Would Illinois Rather Face Duke or UConn in the Final Four?

The city of Champaign is going to be basking in the glory of Illinois’ Elite Eight victory over Iowa for all six days that separate the win from this coming Saturday’s Final Four game.

Not everyone will have that luxury.

Although Brad Underwood and his players will undoubtedly take a beat to bask in the moment, they won’t be able to extend the festivities, as preparation for their next opponent – either Duke or UConn – will require a hefty effort.

With that in mind, as the Blue Devils and Huskies are set to face off Sunday afternoon (4:05 p.m. CT, CBS), it's fair to ask: Which team would Illinois rather face – Duke or UConn? Not that anyone but the teams on the floor will have a say in the matter, but Illini Nation certainly wouldn’t mind having a team to root for on Sunday (or more aptly, a team to root harder against).

Duke or UConn: Which is the better draw for Illinois in the Final Four?

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer watches down court Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why Illinois 'wants' to face Duke

The Blue Devils are as battered and bruised as any team remaining in this field. Duke, minus Caleb Foster, struggled mightily in the first weekend, barely squeaking past No. 16 seed Siena in the first round before playing TCU tight in the majority of their second-round game (the Blue Devils did eventually put their foot on the gas).

Then in the Sweet 16, Duke – with Foster back in the mix – battled a feisty St. John’s team down to the wire. In the tournament, the Blue Devils haven’t exactly been at the peak of their defensive powers, and their superbly talented offensive roster has lately been carried by Cam Boozer and Isaiah Evans.

Why Illinois would prefer to avoid Duke

At the same time, Boozer is head-and-shoulders more dangerous than any other player in the country – and on both ends. Also, there is a hidden, perhaps easily overlooked factor in play: wing Dame Sarr.

The ex-Illini target is a defensive stalwart on the perimeter. If a player were custom-built to shut down Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, his name would be Dame Sarr. There may not be a better guard defender in the nation – and certainly no one is better equipped than the slinky 6-foot-8 Sarr to check Wagler.

With another opportunity to regain its rhythm with an increasingly healthy Foster (not to mention big man Patrick Ngongba II) on Sunday, Duke would be a scary draw in the Final Four.

Why Illinois 'wants' to face UConn

Despite Dan Hurley’s X’s-and-O’s brilliance, this Huskies squad is one of his worst offensive units (No. 30 in the country) in quite some time – though that's a relative statement. His tact in that department hasn’t taken a step back, but the talent on his roster has taken a dip from past seasons.

Veteran forward Alex Karaban is excellent, but he still doesn’t exactly fall into the star category. Guard Solo Ball has seen his three-point percentages dive off a cliff this year (from 41.4 percent last season to 29.8 percent in 2025-26). Big man Tarris Reed Jr. is a monster on the block, but both Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic would likely hold their own against him.

UConn has a variety of solid options but no go-to presence that can take over a game (Ball’s microwave ability hasn’t been displayed nearly as often this season) and no clear choice down the stretch on offense.

Why Illinois would prefer to avoid UConn

Admittedly, there are two sides of the floor – and Illinois does not want to see UConn on the other one. In the first go-round back in late November, the Illini shot just 19-for-60 (31.7 percent) from the field (and lost 74-61). The Huskies are extremely well-coached on that end, have excellent pieces (size, length and athleticism) and are capable of making Illinois’ high-powered offense sputter.

On the flip side, lead guard Keaton Wagler hadn’t been moved on to the ball yet for that early-season matchup. He played just 14 minutes (scoring three points) – the majority of which involved him being literally stuck in a corner. A potential Illinois-UConn rematch in the Final Four would likely bear minimal resemblance to that November matchup from an offensive perspective for the Illini.

Still, the Huskies' D is really good, and we’ve seen Illinois’ offense – even with Wagler running the show – encounter too-routine rough patches against mediocre defenses. The mismatch-hunting offense predicated on ball-screen action may be vulnerable against UConn, especially considering Hurley would have a six-day prep.

Illinois on SI verdict: UConn is the preferred matchup

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts in the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Aside from Hurley getting six days to build a game plan – which is not something to gloss over – the Huskies, even after comfortably knocking off the Illini earlier this season, aren’t exactly an unwelcome foe for Illinois at this juncture.

To clarify, UConn is undoubtedly capable of taking down the Illini. But by the time the Final Four rolls around, there won't be an opponent left that anyone will be begging for. If Illinois had its pick, though, the Huskies would be the least of all evils.