Experts All Make Same Pick for Illinois vs. UConn

Heading into Illinois’ Final Four showdown with UConn, the numbers – at least ESPN’s – lean ever so slightly in the Illini’s direction. The only two non-No. 1 seeds remaining in the NCAA Tournament, both Illinois (No. 3 seed from South Region) and UConn (No. 2 seed from East Region) had to pull off upsets to get to Indianapolis.

But the Illini, who have controlled every game they’ve played in this tournament, have been the stronger of the two squads through four games, as the Huskies were forced to climb out of a 19-point hole against Duke in the Elite Eight.

Admittedly, UConn’s path through the tournament has been more grueling than that of Illinois. But between the eye test and the advanced analytics – the Illini have been the superior team on the season and in the tournament, according to both KenPom and Bart Torvik – it would be hard not to go with Illinois as the team to beat here.

Or you would think so. But as far as five college basketball experts are concerned, UConn is the pick to turn back Illinois and reach its third Final Four in four seasons. What gives?

College basketball experts predict Illinois vs. UConn

Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) reacts after getting fouled in the second half against the UConn Huskies at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello predicted UConn over Illinois by a final score of 74-72. ESPN’s Myron Medcalf is also riding with the Huskies, projecting the final score at 77-73.

CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein picked UConn over Illinois. He also has Michigan over Arizona in the other Final Four matchup, and then, somewhat surprisingly, UConn over Michigan for the title.

CBS Sports’ Chris Walker said he is “definitely going UConn” over Illinois, while his other pick was Arizona over Michigan – and then UConn to win it all in the title game. Lots of Huskies love going around.

CBS Sports’ Wally Szczerbiak made UConn the pick, saying that “[UConn head coach] Danny Hurley has his guys so clutch. They all have the clutch gene – and so does he.” Then he picked Michigan over Arizona, along with the Wolverines to knock off the Huskies for the championship.

Why the pundits are picking UConn over Illinois

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley celebrates after a play against the Duke Blue Devils in the second half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Although none of them outside of Szczerbiak mentioned Hurley, the Huskies' coach is the likely common denominator. Illinois may be bigger, stronger and more skilled, but UConn has a head man who has won two of the past three national championships (as has veteran forward Alex Karaban).

It's a fair point. There is no way to replicate Final Four experience. And with this being Hurley’s third trip in four years, there isn’t a single individual left in the tournament who is better prepared for the moment than he is.

Why the CBB experts’ predictions for Illinois-UConn may be wrong

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) reacts in the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Still, facts are facts. The Illini have more weapons and have playing at a higher level all tournament long. Even Illinois coach Brad Underwood, who put together a foolproof game plan on a four-day prep vs. Houston, is operating at peak performance.

Will Hurley’s coaching prowess be enough to carry UConn past Illinois? The knee-jerk reaction may be to say yes. But although Hurley is a mastermind at elevating the floor of his teams, raising the ceiling on this Huskies group the necessary amount may be too great a task. When UConn went back-to-back, it was (even as a No. 4 seed in 2023) clearly the best team in the country. (Both of those teams finished the year No. 1 in KenPom. Comparatively, this year’s UConn team ranks No. 9.)

Over the past two seasons, Hurley has been forced to elevate his squads' ceilings. And in 2025, he almost did it in the Round of 32 against eventual national champion Florida (losing by two). Last Sunday, he did it against Duke. Can he do it again on Saturday night against Illinois? Perhaps, but all the numbers – if not pundits – suggest it's out of reach.