The Big Question: Will Illinois QB Luke Altmyer Surpass 3,000 Passing Yards in 2025?

Altmyer is generally expected to follow up his 2024 season with a superior 2025. Will he? Our answer may surprise you.

Nov 2, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) before a game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has what every player, coach and fan desires most from their team's on-field leader: reps. Specifically, college game experience. Altmyer, who has already played four years of college football – two of them as a go-to gunslinger in his current scheme – is a veteran in every sense of the word.

As a starter with the Illini (Altmyer spent his first two years at Ole Miss), he has shown spectacular growth. He took a leap forward from 2023 to 2024, and Illinois – not coincidentally – jumped with him, to a 10-3 record.

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of Altmyer's Year 1 and Year 2 at Illinois:

Year	Games Played	Yards	TD	INT	Completion%	Passer Rating
2023	9	1883	13	10	64.8%	131.9
2024	13	2717	22	6	60.8%	144.0

Clearly, Altmyer is trending in the right direction. But can he follow up his impressive 2024 campaign with an even better statistical season?

In an attempt to answer that question empirically, we’ll pick a straightforward benchmark: Will Altmyer surpass 3,000 passing yards?

A quick disclaimer: Our answer doesn't necessarily encapsulate how well we think Altmyer will perform on the whole, because at the end of the day, a quarterback has one job: to win football games. And in that area, Altmyer appears poised to flourish. But what does that portend, if anything, for his statistical success in 2025?

Luke Altmyer's 2024 season

Nov 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) passes the ball against Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

First, a deeper dive into Altmyer’s standout 2024 season. His 2,717 yards passing yards ranked ninth in the Big Ten, his 60.8 completion percentage rated 12th, his passer rating of 144.0 was sixth, and he was sacked a Big Ten-leading 32 times.

There is no perfect way to measure a quarterback's full impact. Even the strongest-armed playmaker must fill the role of game manager in some situations. A player’s ability to lead and react to situations can’t be quantified by a single digit. But one number that every quarterback is ultimately judged by is wins. And Altmyer ranked fifth in the conference in that category. He’s also one of only two returning quarterbacks from those top-five winning Big Ten QBs. (Penn State’s Drew Allar is the other.)

GAME-WINNING HOUSE CALL ON FOURTH DOWN 🏠☎️

We’re revisiting Luke Altmyer’s game-winning TD pass to Pat Bryant on fourth down for @IlliniFootball last season 👀#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/MPJ4OLycaQ

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) April 7, 2025

Why the odds are stacked against Altmyer

Back to the question at hand: Will Altmyer pass for 3,000 yards? The answer is a hard no for two (and a half?) reasons. Their names are Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, who together made up 60.2 percent of Illinois' reception yards from last season but have both since departed. And the "half"? The Illini return all of their offensive lineman, along with a pair of experienced backs in Aidan Laughery and Kaden Feagin, and coach Bret Bielema loves his ground-and-pound football. (It's worth noting, however, that offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. seems to favor the passing game.)

The moral of the story is this: Illinois can be expected to pass even less frequently than it did in 2024. West Virginia transfer receiver Hudson Clement is a noteworthy addition, but the Illini don’t have the same talent and experience within the scheme at receiver as they do at running back. Nor will they have as much incentive to throw if the defense proves as capable as it can be.

If Illinois leans on its ground game in 2025 (as it probably should), Altmyer will simply have fewer opportunities to ring up big numbers. The flip side: He will likely be one of the most efficient passers in the Big Ten – and figures to hit the deck a lot less frequently, too. Most of all, the Illini could win more games behind Altmyer's play this time around – and that's what it’s all about.

Illinois on SI prediction: Altmyer won't eclipse 3,000 passing yards

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

The Big Question: Will Illinois Football Have a Top-15 Defense in 2025?

Illinois Football's Week 4 Matchup at Indiana Sells Out: What it Means

Illinois Football Seeking to Flip Wisconsin Class of 2026 Commit Jack Janda

ESPN Releases Top 32 College Football Playoff Contenders: Is Illinois on the List?

USA Today Coaches Poll: Where Illinois Football and 2025 Opponents Rank