Iowa Given Small Chance of Beating UCLA

It’s not an overreaction to say the Iowa Hawkeyes recent loss to USC could’ve changed their entire season.

The last thing this team wants to do is drop two games in a row, but that’s the harsh reality of playing on the west coast.

If Iowa thought USC was a challenge, they’re in for quite the wake-up call against No. 2 UCLA. Iowa brings their 18-3 (9-1) record to the Pauley Pavilion after coming up short, 81-69, at the Galen Center.

UCLA is the clear-cut second best team in the nation, though a win over Iowa could get them closer to the No. 1 spot. This was supposed to be a battle of the conference’s only undefeated teams, but instead Iowa joins Michigan as a one-loss team. Come February 1, that may no longer be the case.

ESPN Analytics Gives Iowa 10.7% Chance to Win

Back to work. pic.twitter.com/uPSLUCcd9C
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 30, 2026

Fans were extremely upset that ESPN Analytics favored USC over Iowa, but at the end of the day their numbers were true. Iowa looked sluggish, and jet-lag couldn’t have possibly been a factor as they didn’t lead for a single second against the Trojans.

Losing to an unranked team is one thing, but doing so days before you have to play 20-1 (10-0) UCLA is another. The Bruins have all the momentum in the world and have shown no signs of slowing down, unlike Iowa.

The Bruins lone loss came to No. 4 Texas in a neutral site game on November 26, 76-65. Since then, they’ve won 14 straight. To no surprise, ESPN Analytics is favoring the team who didn’t slip up against an unranked foe. In their winning streak, UCLA has taken care of business against five ranked teams.

B1G Heating Up

Iowa G Taylor Stremlo — Jan 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans guard Kara Dunn (25) and Iowa Hawkeyes guard Taylor Stremlow (1) looks for a rebound in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Iowa can’t afford to lose to UCLA, plain and simple. They likely will, simply because the Bruins are that good, but this is the type of win Iowa needs to add to their resume after getting blown out by UConn earlier in the year.

The Huskies are a great team, as are the Bruins. How the Hawkeyes match up against the Bruins on February 1 will determine just how highly people still think of them heading into the tournament. Each team still has a handful of games remaining after this, including taking on the other one-team loss in the conference, Michigan.

At this point, Iowa is just looking to make it back home without being embarrassed too much. The Taylor McCabe injury harmed this team far more than they could’ve ever imagined, so now it’s about adjusting and figuring out what will work down the stretch to get past that injury.

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