Inside The Hawkeyes

Three Last-Minute Iowa vs. Michigan State Predictions

Just hours away from kickoff, the Iowa Hawkeyes are preparing for their final home game of the year.
Jordon Lawrenz|
Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton (28) runs the ball against Southern California Trojans linebacker Jadyn Walker (31) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton (28) runs the ball against Southern California Trojans linebacker Jadyn Walker (31) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

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Iowa Hawkeyes

While Iowa Hawkeyes fans certainly wish the last two weeks went differently, they know they have no choice but to look past those games and move forward. With Michigan State coming to town, it's the perfect opportunity to right their wrongs and get back on track.

Iowa may have already qualified for a bowl game, but they're looking to end the season on a high note. With their final game at Kinnick Stadium being against a team who has lost seven straight games, the Hawkeyes couldn't have asked for a better way to go out in-front of their home fans.

Iowa Unleashes a Sack Party

In the past two weeks, Michigan State has allowed 12 sacks. To put it lightly, that's unacceptable. If the Hawkeyes aren't able to exploit that, then everything that's been hyped up about their defense should go away.

The Spartans offensive line is far from the best, and their banged up quarterbacks aren't going to make things any easier. Iowa has 19 sacks on the year with 16 of those coming from Max Llewellyn, Ethan Hurkett, and Aaron Graves. Expect big games from that trio on senior day, no less.

Mistake Free Football From Iowa

While it's not like Mark Gronowski is a turnover machine, it'd be quite embarrassing for the Hawkeyes to play poorly against MSU. The Spartans have a -4 turnover margin which is nowhere near as good as Iowa's +3.

Not only that, but Michigan State has allowed opponents to score on 86% of their trips to the red-zone. As long as Iowa is able to put up touchdowns instead of field goals, they'll have no difficulty getting past this Spartans team.

Iowa Covers the Spread...and Then Some

It seems disrespectful to have Iowa as 16.5 point favorites knowing they've lost two in a row, but no one can deny who they lost to. Iowa hung in there against a pair of College Football Playoff caliber teams, and now they play 3-7 MSU who's yet to win a game in the conference.

When Iowa wins, they win big. That's exactly why ESPN Analytics gives them an 89.4% chance to beat MSU. Iowa dominated Rutgers in the second half and blew past both Wisconsin and Minnesota, with only the Golden Gophers game taking place at home. It'd be shocking if their game against the Spartans wasn't a repeat of October 25 vs. Minnesota.

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Jordon Lawrenz
JORDON LAWRENZ

Jordon Lawrenz serves as the Eastern United States College Recruiting beat writer On SI. Jordon is an accomplished writer covering the NFL, MLB, and college football/basketball. He has contributed to PFSN’s and Heavy’s NFL coverage. Having graduated from the University of Wisconsin - Green Bay with a Sports Communication and Journalism degree, Jordon fully embraced the sports writing lifestyle upon his relocation to Florida.

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