ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Oklahoma State Basketball Matchup

Coming off a loss to Iowa State on Saturday, the Kansas basketball team is looking to get back into the win column tonight against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys will host the Jayhawks in Gallagher-Iba Arena in Bill Self's second straight road matchup.

The Jayhawks had previously won eight straight but fell to the Cyclones in a rematch of last month's showdown. KU is attempting to bounce back against a less formidable opponent in the Pokes, though it's still a tough environment away from home.

KU direly needs this win for its NCAA Tournament resume. Furthermore, it would likely be virtually eliminated from Big 12 regular-season title contention with a loss. The Jayhawks can afford no more than one defeat in their final six games if they want to claim their first share of the title since 2023, and it certainly cannot come today with more challenging opponents remaining on the schedule.

As a 5.5-point favorite, KU is clearly viewed as the more likely team to come out victorious. However, what does ESPN say? Here's what the Matchup Predictor model forecasts on game day.

Kansas at Oklahoma State: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

The matchup predictor gives Kansas a strong chance of winning today. Self and Co. have nearly a four-fifths probability of being a road winner.

Jan 10, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Kansas Jayhawks players huddle during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Kansas 78.0%, Oklahoma State 22.0%.

Kansas On SI's Take

Considering KU is a solid road favorite tonight, it isn't surprising that the Matchup Predictor gives it strong odds. The model projects the Jayhawks to bounce back from last game's loss and potentially start a new winning streak.

Oklahoma State is a lower-tier team in the Big 12 right now, sitting at 4-8 in conference play despite a 9-0 start in nonconference action. The Cowboys have picked up ranked home wins over UCF and BYU, but have also suffered some tough defeats.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks boast one of the more impressive resumes in the country. Even with the injury fiasco surrounding star freshman Darryn Peterson, they hold marquee conference wins over Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech and still have matchups with the Wildcats and Houston remaining.

Today's contest is a classic trap game, as the Cowboys aren't necessarily elite, but KU has struggled on the road and Steve Lutz's group is red-hot from 3-point range. It will be a significant test for Kansas, and a win should get them back on track ahead of their return to Allen Fieldhouse this weekend.