Houston at Kansas Basketball Preview
If any game inside Allen Fieldhouse this season can match the anticipation and excitement of defending champion UCONN coming to town, it’s the matchup Saturday when the Kansas Jayhawks host No. 4 Houston in a Big 12 battle.
Opponent Overview
Team: Houston
Record: 19-2
KenPom: 1
Line: Houston -
Team Form
Kelvin Sampson has turned Houston into a powerhouse program. And even with the jump up in competition level joining the Big 12, Houston has been able to hold its own. The Cougars lost back-to-back games on the road early in the conference season to Iowa State and TCU. But since then, they’ve rattled off five straight wins.
This will be Houston’s second game against a top-25 KenPom team since those two road losses. The other was a 75-68 win at BYU, which is much higher in the computer metrics (9th in KenPom) than the AP poll (22nd). The conference wins are the highlight of the resume since Houston rarely challenged itself in the non-con.
Players to Watch
Kansas is familiar with Houston’s leading scorer. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer can score from anywhere on the floor and is averaging 15.1 points per game while shooting 38% from three and 89% from the free-throw line. This was on display against BYU when Cryer dropped 23 points while making five of nine threes and going a perfect 4-4 from the line. Though he’s struggled in the two losses, scoring five points in each game while shooting a combined 2-13 from three.
Cryer doesn’t fill up the stat sheet in a number of other ways, but Jamal Shead certainly does. Shead is playing like an All-American, averaging 12.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. And don’t let the ppg number fool you. Shead can take over a game. Against Texas Tech, Shead dropped a season-high 29 points, 10 assists, and four rebounds. Shead was also fantastic in the most recent game against Texas with 25 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Rounding out Houston’s trio of great guards is Emanuel Sharp, who is at 12.2 points and 4.1 rebounds on the season.
Matchups to Watch
There aren’t many weaknesses to this Houston team, but one that Kansas has to take advantage of is that the Cougars can struggle to score inside. Houston is one of the shortest teams in the country (331st in average height) and only shoots 48.3% from two-point range, which is 254th nationally. Houston didn’t shoot above 50% from two in either loss, and shot just 45% against Texas’ length. The contrast is that Houston is the best two-point defense. If Kansas wants to win this game, it will need to win the battle in the paint.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the offensive glass is going to play a huge role. Houston may not be big but they crash the glass as well as anyone and lead the Big 12 in offensive rebound percentage during league play. The combination of this plus not turning it over much and forcing a lot of turnovers means that the Cougars get so many more chances to score than its opponents. That's how it can not be overly efficient from two and still beat good teams.
A place where Kansas can get more opportunities? The free-throw line. Houston doesn’t get to the line much but sends opponents there often. The Cougars understandably pick up a number of fouls with their aggressive style. Kansas has to get to the line often and convert when given free opportunities.
Prediction
The metrics, poll, and resume say that Houston should win this game. It’s completely logical. The thing Houston doesn’t have going for it is this:
To be undefeated in 13 games as the worse team in a top-10 matchup at home is absolutely ridiculous. The current No. 1 team in UCONN saw this first-hand two months ago. And this Kansas team seems to play up to the competition. The health of Kevin McCullar and his knee is a huge question mark, but I would have to imagine that if McCullar has any say in the matter, he’ll be on the floor.
I fully expect this to be a dog fight that leaves both teams gassed after 40 minutes. And it really is a first-to-70 type of game. Texas in the last game was the first Big 12 team to score 70 against the Cougars this year. I think Kansas barely gets to 70 and clinches a hard-fought victory.
Kansas 70, Houston 67
Record ATS: 11-10
Record Straight Up: 17-4
(Last game: Kansas 83, Oklahoma State 54)
