KenPom Reveals Kansas’ NCAA Title Chances: What Are Jayhawks’ Odds?

By the middle of the regular season, Kansas was ranked within the top 10 nationally and was viewed as one of the top title contenders in the country. However, that belief has slowly faded in recent weeks as the Jayhawks have hit a rough patch.

Bill Self's group will open the NCAA Tournament tomorrow night against the No. 13 seed Cal Baptist, where it will look to get out of the first weekend of March for the first time since 2022. But even if KU does win a couple of games, does it really have a shot at winning it all?

Respected metric site KenPom recently released its title odds on Substack. Not only are KU's chances slim, but they might even be worse than you expect.

Kansas Jayhawks mascot Baby Jay gets the crowd hyped before the game against BYU Cougars inside Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 31, 2026 | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

KenPom Gives Kansas 21st-Best Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Despite sitting as a No. 4 seed, Kansas has the 21st-best odds in KenPom's metrics to win the national title. These are lower odds than No. 6 Tennessee and No. 5 seeds Vanderbilt, St. John's, and Texas Tech, making KU the only No. 4 seed ranked outside the top 15.

Team	Round of 32	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Final Four	Title Game
Kansas	86.7%	45.5%	11.4%	5.1%	1.7% (0.5% to win)

The Jayhawks are given a solid chance to come out of tomorrow's matchup victorious, followed by a Round of 32 meeting with either St. John's or Northern Iowa. The Red Storm are only given a 46.5% chance to make the Sweet 16 in these odds, suggesting that showdown could be a toss-up if it comes to fruition.

Still, KU's chances to make the Elite Eight drop significantly according to these projections. That game could potentially come against top-seeded Duke, which narrowly defeated Siena College earlier today in its opening clash of the tournament.

A Final Four appearance appears highly unlikely, with just a 5.1% chance to be one of the last four teams standing. And even if the team were to make the title game, KenPom gives it less than a one-third chance at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis.

There are many factors at play in the tournament, including the performance of star freshman Darryn Peterson and his supporting cast. Regardless, the public is not feeling too optimistic about the Jayhawks, given their recent stretch that featured a 22-point loss to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas cannot afford to look too far ahead, as its first test will come against CBU tomorrow. Anything can happen in March, so take these probabilities with a grain of salt.