Bryce Hopkins' Decommitment Proves Chris Mack's Uphill Recruiting Battle
Well, that wasn't exactly the type of news that Louisville fans wanted to hear over the weekend.
On Sunday, small forward Bryce Hopkins - Louisville's highest ranked recruit in the Class of 2021 - opted to decommit from the Cardinals and reopen his recruitment.
No matter how you slice it, this is a huge blow for head coach Chris Mack and his coaching staff. The Fenwick (Ill.) combo-forward is ranked as high as the No. 32 prospect in the country (ESPN 100), and had been the longest-tenured commit in the class for the men's basketball program.
But perhaps what stings the most is his reasoning for decommitting in the first place: Louisville's standing with the NCAA.
"I opened up my recruitment because there were a lot of uncertainties on what is going on with the sanctions," Hopkins told 247Sports. "They also keep appealing (the sanctions) which is only making it harder on me."
Back in May, Louisville received one Level I and three Level II allegations stemming from the recruitment of Brian Bowen and the Adidas pay-for-play scheme during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons.
Like it or not, it was only a matter of time before a recruit - committed or uncommitted - publicly stated their lack of interest in the Cardinals due to the black cloud of the NCAA. After all, we had already started to see the signs earlier this offseason.
Following the sudden cancellation of March Madness, Mack immediately started to hit the graduate transfer market. Before striking gold with Carlik Jones and later Charles Minlend, most of the players who entered the transfer portal that Mack showed interest in did not seem to reciprocate the same interest.
Quinnipiac's Kevin Marfo committed to Texas A&M. Yale's Jordan Bruner excluded Louisville from his top three, as did Bowling Green's Justin Turner. Loyola Marymount's Mattias Markusson decided to return to LMU and Purdue's Matt Haarms excluded the Cards from his top 10.
Even transfers that would have to sit a year such as Wichita State's Jamarius Burton and Rhode Island's Tyrese Martin are kicking the Cards to the curb when trimming their list of top schools.
There are plenty of other reasons why this could have been so, which I wrote about back in April when this was all unfolding in real time. However, even then the elephant in the room was still the NCAA.
Just days before the COVID-19 pandemic obliterated the sporting world, the NCAA formally advised Louisville that it was launching an inquiry into potential infractions. Two months later, that inquiry evolved into a full-fledged Notice of Allegations.
But why decommit now? Or better yet why commit at all with the NCAA slowly appearing in the review mirror. Well, a partial answer to the could be his recruiting stock and how it has blossomed since his commitment to Louisville.
This time last year, Hopkins was just outside the Top 100 according to the 247Sports Composite. When he committed to Louisville last November, he had progressed up to the No. 71 prospect. Fast forward to the day of his decommitment, and he is knocking on the door of being a Top-30 prospect.
My point here is that at the time of his commitment, he wasn't as nationally known as a college basketball prospect. Now he is, and being back on the open market will only drawn further interest across the recruiting landscape.
Now I'm not one to speculate very much, but think about this: As his recruitment and prospect stock increases, so does the proverbial NCAA black cloud over the Louisville men's basketball program. Recruiting is a cutthroat business, and negative recruiting from other programs is almost guaranteed to have happened here.
Long story short, as long as the NCAA looms over the KFC Yum! Center, Louisville will have a hard time drawing blue-chip tier recruits. Take for example Harrison Ingram and Jalen Warley.
That doesn't mean Mack will stop trying though. After all, he was able to land a Top-15 recruiting class with a McDonalds All-American as the crown jewel in his first year with the program - and that was coming off the heels of a completely different scandal.
Simply put: until the day that Louisville is 100% done with the NCAA's Committee on Infractions, it will be damn near impossible for the Cards to haul in the big fish.
Mack undoubtedly deserves criticism as well as praise for his recruiting efforts. But at the end of the day, there are forces outside of his control that will dictate how well he performs on the recruiting trail - to which that should not be reflected onto him.
You can follow us for future coverage by clicking "Follow" on the top righthand corner of the page. Also be sure to like us on Facebook & Twitter:
Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter - @LouisvilleOnSI and Matthew McGavic at @GeneralWasp
