Chris Mack's Grad Transfer Recruiting Pickle
In recent years, grad transfers have slowly developed into an integral part of recruiting for the University of Louisville men's basketball program. Over the last half decade the Cardinals have brought in nine graduate transfers, and have only once failed to produced a roster that did not feature one (2017-18 season).
Head coach Chris Mack is no stranger to this, as he brought in five during his first two years at the helm for Louisville. He brought in Christen Cunningham, Akoy Agau & Khwan Fore for the 2018-19 season, and followed that up with Lamarr "Fresh" Kimble and Keith Oddo this previous year.
However, this time around has been different. So far, Louisville has struck out a majority of the targets they choose to pursue. Quinnipiac's Kevin Marfo committed to Texas A&M. Yale's Jordan Bruner excluded Louisville from his top three, as did Bowling Green's Justin Turner. Loyola Marymount's Mattias Markusson decided to return to LMU and Purdue's Matt Haarms excluded the Cards from his top 10.
Even transfers that would have to sit a year such as Wichita State's Jamarius Burton and Rhode Island's Tyrese Martin are kicking the Cards to the curb when trimming their list of top schools.
Mack has proven in the past that he can recruit grad transfers to play for the Cards. He has even done so in this offseason by landing a commitment from the No. 1 grad transfer in the country in Carlik Jones. But why is it that most targets are turning a blind eye to Louisville in this cycle?
It's easy to point the finger at Chris Mack and place the blame solely on him for the lack of noise Louisville has produced in the grad transfer market. But when you take a step back, there are other variables at play that would make recruiting them a tall task for anyone.
First we'll start with the roster currently at hand. Louisville has two open scholarship spots for the 2020-21 season and has some holes that needs filling, but the minutes that grad transfers seek might not be as readily available as it might seem for one reason or another.
Prior to Jones' commitment, Josh Nickelberry was projected as the starter at the two spot. Considering he averaged just 0.8 points over 3.7 minutes last season, targets such as Turner & Burton who are mainly shooting/scoring guards, or even a wingman such as Martin would have been perfect for the starting role.
But because of the time that JUCO Player of the Year and Louisville signee Jay Scrubb spent deliberating on if he would go pro or come to Louisville, it was a hard sell for backcourt targets in the early goings of the 2020-21 grad transfer market. Mack would not be able to give prospective targets a straight answer on the amount of minutes they would receive, because the decision at the time was out of his hands.
Fortunately, the early decision by Scrubb's to remain in the draft process has a positive ripple effect on Louisville's grad transfer recruiting trail. It now allows Mack the time to find a suitable replacement for him, instead of remaining in limbo about if he will have him or not.
Even still, recruiting a guard or wing player to replace his scholarship spot will be a tough task. It is safe to assume that as of right now, the starting backcourt will be David Johnson & Carlik Jones with Samuell Williamson on the wing. Signee D'Andre Davis could even jump into the fold depending on ho the progresses.
One of the biggest reasons that any transfer, graduate or not, leaves their former school is because of playing time. It was one of the factors that led to Darius Perry's transfer from Louisville. With the 1 through 3 spots more than likely locked up, minutes for a backcourt transfer won't be as freely available as one would like.
Then we have the front court. Before Scrubb freed up a scholarship, Mack stated that he planned on using the final available scholarship on a front court player and specifically a center. The issue here is, the low post is arguably the deepest part of Louisville's roster.
Between the four and five spots, the Cardinals feature five scholarship players. Power forward is the deepest position, with Jae'Lyn Withers, Quinn Slazinski & JJ Traynor falling into this category, (with Withers as the projected starter), then at center we have Malik Williams & Aidan Igiehon.
As Seth Davis would say: "Malik Williams. Sharpie." Day one of 2020-21, you can expect the defensive anchor to be the starter down in the post. Beyond that, the front court has more questions than answers. Does Aidan Igiehon make a significant offseason leap? Is Jae'Lyn Withers as good as Mack has advertised? Could Quinn Slazinski possibly contend for a starting role, or even JJ Traynor?
As Louisville Report & Louisville Sports Live discussed, the frontcourt has a ton of "unproven depth" and it is hard to guesstimate how many minutes a front court grad transfer would receive.
A counterargument to every point presented is that Mack shoots for versatility with his lineups. In a teleconference with reporters on Tuesday, he stated that he doesn't like to pigeonhole players into set roles and likes to play to the strengths of whatever lineup he roles out.
As a counter to that counter, I present to you the ultimate trump card: the NCAA.
On Mar. 8, 2019, the NCAA formally advised Louisville that it was launching an inquiry into potential infractions. The school never provided additional details beyond that, but logic dictated it surrounded the FBI's 2017 bribery investigation into college basketball and specifically former UofL recruit Brian Bowen Jr.
Louisville has yet to hear back from the NCAA on if infractions were found, but if a Notice of Allegations is indeed filed by the NCAA, the penalties are expected to be severe considering the Cardinals were already on probation because of the Katina Powell & Andre McGee scandal.
The black cloud lingering over Louisville's head undoubtedly plays a hand into their ability to attract grad transfers. Like it or not, other coaches vying for these players are more than likely using it as a negative recruiting pitch in order to try and remove Louisville from the equation.
Another popular reason for players to enter the portal as a grad transfer, other than minutes, is the prospect of playing in the NCAA Tournament. Many of these transfers are typically leaving schools that are not mainstays in the Big Dance, and have their eyes fixated on programs that year in and year out are March Madness fixtures.
However, depending on what the NCAA finds, the tournament is not a guarantee for Louisville in 2020-21. This puts Chris Mack in a tricky spot. He simply can't tell a prospective grad transfer not to worry and look past it. Why? Because even he has no idea what the NCAA, an organization that has an extensive track record of inconsistent punishments, will do.
Rather than take that risk and use their last year of eligibility on a program that might not even be eligible for the tournament, it's easy to see why many grad transfers are taking the safe bet and looking the other way.
While Chris Mack deserves both fair criticism and praise for his efforts in this grad transfer cycle, a lot of what transpires between now and opening tip is unfortunately out of his control.
You can follow us for future coverage by clicking "Follow" on the top righthand corner of the page. Also be sure to like us on Facebook & Twitter:
Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter - @LouisvilleOnSI and Matthew McGavic at @GeneralWasp
