Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Bearcats for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals guard J'Vonne Hadley (1) scored on a layup during the second half as the Louisville Cardinals hosted the Kentucky Wildcats at the KFC Yum! Center on Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025. The Cardinals defeated the Wildcats 96-88. | Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Cincinnati (4-0, 0-0 Big 12) on Friday, Nov. 21 at 6:30 p.m. EST at the Heritage Bank Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bearcats:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Cincinnati	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	6th/6th
SOS	270th	216th
SOR	35th	6th
NET	N/A	N/A
RPI	49th	105th
BPI	50th	4th
KenPom	42nd	10th
Torvik	41st	6th
EvanMiya	39th	12th

Team Leaders

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Points	Baba Miller (15.8)	Mikel Brown Jr. (19.3)
Rebounds	Baba Miller (10.5)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.0)
Assists	Kerr Kriisa (5.0)	Mikel Brown Jr. (6.8)
Steals	Moustapha Thiam (1.8)	Kobe Rodgers (2.0)
Blocks	Moustapha Thiam (2.3)	Sananda Fru (1.3)

Scoring

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Points Per Game	78.5	103.0
Field Goal %	44.3	50.0
FGM/FGA Per Game	25.5/57.5	33.3/66.5
Three Point %	29.9	36.4
3PTM/3PTA	8.0/26.8	12.8/35.0
Free Throw %	63.4	73.6
FTM/FTA Per Game	19.5/30.8	23.8/32.3

Rebounding

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	41.3	44.3
Off. Reb. Per Game	10.5	14.3
Def. Reb. Per Game	30.8	30.0
Rebound Margin	6.0	9.8

Defense

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	61.0	71.0
Opp. FG%	35.6	38.9
Opp. 3PT%	27.0	32.1
Steals Per Game	8.0	11.3
Blocks Per Game	6.3	2.8
Turnovers Forced Per Game	17.8	17.0

Ball Handling

	Cincinnati	Louisville
Assists Per Game	16.5	22.5
Turnovers Per Game	16.3	11.0
Turnover Margin	1.5	6.0
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.01	2.04

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has an 82.6 percent chance to win against Cincinnati. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.9 (4th overall), whereas Cincinnati has a BPI rating of 11.7 (50th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 68 percent chance to take down the Bearcats, with a projected final score of 83-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.30 (10th overall), whereas Cincinnati has an adjusted efficiency margin of +17.05 (42nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 72 percent chance to take down the Bearcats, with a projected final score of 83-76 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9352 (6th overall), whereas Cincinnati has a "Barthag" of .8518 (41st overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 88, Cincinnati 79.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jeff Faughender - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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