Stat Comparison: Louisville vs. Florida State

Louisville vs. Florida State ACC Championship 2023 | William Caudill

Louisville and Florida State are set to square off Friday Night at the L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Noles have beaten the Cards in the last two meetings between the schools with the last being the 2023 ACC Title Game in Charlotte.

The Cards last win against the Seminoles came in Tallahassee back in 2021 when UofL prevailed over FSU 31-23. Malik Cunningham threw for 264 yards and 2 TDs and also led Louisville in rushing with 56 yards on 14 carries.

Who has the edge Friday Night? Let's check it out

Louisville Offense vs. Florida State Defense

Louisville's offense has been GOOD this year. In fact, it is a 102 yards better in 2026 than it was a year ago. AND! It's nearly 37 yards better per game than any offense Jeff Brohm has had at Louisville.

So what gives? Penalties and average starting field position. The Cards are sitting at 13.4 yards per point in 2026. Which means they start from further back or have setbacks along the way.

Florida State Defensively has been bi-polar in 2026. Giving up 550+ yards to both SMU and Alabama and then limiting Central Arkansas and Virginia both to less than 250 yards.

Where are the big mismatches? Louisville Offense vs. FSU Defense

1) Yards Per Play. Louisville #5 in the country in YPP. FSU's Defense is 87th. The Cards rely on the explosive play and the Noles have allowed that during much of 2026.

2) Passing. The Cards are #23 in the Nation in Passing while FSU 127th(!) in Passing Defense. It gets even worse when broken down in the Yards Per Pass metric with Lousiville checking in at #10 and FSU at #102.

3) Protecting the QB. This may be the great equalizer for Florida State on Friday Night. The Louisville Offensive Line is 81st in allowing sacks, and Florida State has been outstanding rushing the passer at #8.

	Louisville Offense	Florida State Defense
Scoring/Scoring Allowed	38.6 ppg (22nd)	21.6 ppga (55th)
Total Yardage/Yardage Allowed	486.0 ypg (17th)	384.8 (103rd)
Yards Per Point/Opp Yards Per Point	13.4 (47th)	16.6 (38th)
Yards Per Play/Allowed	7.52 ypp (5th)	5.59 (87th)
Passing Offense/Passing Defense	287.4 ypg (23rd)	265.6 ypga (127th)
Yards Per Pass Attempt/YPPAAllowed	9.8 ypa (10th)	7.8 ypaa (102nd)
Rushing Offense/Rushing Defense	198.6 ypg (38th)	119.2 ypga (44th)
Yards Per Rush/YPRAllowed	5.61 ypr (18th)	3.45 ypra (41st)
3rd Down%/Opp 3rd Down%	45.61% (42nd)	40.54% (98th)
4th Down%/Opp 4th Down%	0% (136th)	41.67% (43rd)
1st Downs/Opp 1st Downs	23.4 (31st)	21.6 (113th)
Red Zone%/OppRZ%	83.33% (90th)	76.92% (36th)
Red Zone TD%/OppTZTD%	66.67% (56th)	46.15% (26th)
Red Zone Trips/OppRZT	18 (65th)	13 (38th)
Sacks Allowed/Sacks	2.0 (81st)	3.4 (8th)
TFLs Allowed/TFLs	6.4 (121st)	7.2 (20th)
Turnovers/TOs Gained	4 (32nd)	5 (86th)

Florida State Offense vs. Louisville Defense

Louisville's Defense in 2026? Not Good. Right now the Cards are allowing nearly 120 more yards per game than a year ago. AND! It's on pace to be the worst defense for Louisville during the Jeff Brohm era. The Cards haven't given up this many yards per game since 2019 (Year 1 of Scott Satterfield).

As for Florida State the Noles have been able to move the ball at a respectable level. SMU gave FSU the most trouble and limited the Mike Norvell attack to just 324 yards. FSU WANTS to run the ball, but they are capable of a surprise attack to hit with big throws from Ashton Daniels.

Louisville fans may be familiar with Ashton Daniels as he was the QB for Stanford when the Cards fell to the Cardinal out in Palo Alto 2 years ago.

Where are the big mismatches? FSU Offense vs. UofL Defense

1) FSU can move the ball and UofL allows yards. Not to put it too indelicately....Louisville has just been kind of lousy on defense in 2026. It doesn't take a great offense to move the ball against the Cards. Sure Louisville might put together 3 good quarters.... but it's that one 200+ yard quarter that'll sink the entire game. FSU is #26 in yards per play, Louisville is 101st in yards per play allowed.

2) Red Zone. Florida State is 21 for 21 in the Red Zone in 2026. That's effcient. Plus, the Noles are #11 in Red Zone TD% and #36 in Red Zone Trips. FSU gets to the Red Zone and when they arrive, they score points. Meanwhile, Louisville is 63rd in allowing points in scoring position and is 96th in the country at allowing trips to the Red Zone.

3) Turnovers. TOs could be the great equalizer for Louisville in this match-up. Florida State has given up 7 turnovers on the season (84th) and Louisville has 8 takeaways on the year (19th).

	Florida State Offense	Louisville Defense
Scoring/Scoring Allowed	33.2 ppg (58th)	29.2 ppga (113th)
Total Yardage/Yardage Allowed	419.0 ypg (52nd)	423.0 ypga (125th)
Yards Per Point/Opp Yards Per Point	12.7 ypp (37th)	14.0 (75th)
Yards Per Play/Allowed	6.74 ypp (26th)	5.79 yppa (101st)
Passing Offense/Passing Defense	225.0 ypg (77th)	266.8 (130th)
Yards Per Pass Attempt/YPPAAllowed	9.5 ypa (14th)	8.0 ypaa (114th)
Rushing Offense/Rushing Defense	194.0 ypg (41st)	156.2 ypga (93rd)
Yards Per Rush/YPRAllowed	5.03 (41st)	3.92 ypra (63rd)
3rd Down%/Opp 3rd Down%	42.62% (64th)	36.62% (66th)
4th Down%/Opp 4th Down%	62.5% (38th)	55.56% (83rd)
1st Downs/Opp 1st Downs	19.8 (86th)	22.4 (123rd)
Red Zone%/OppRZ%	100% (1st)	83.33% (63rd)
Red Zone TD%/OppTZTD%	80.95% (11th)	50.0% (32nd)
Red Zone Trips/OppRZT	21 (36th)	18 (96th)
Sacks Allowed/Sacks	2.4 (104th)	1.6 (90th)
TFLs Allowed/TFLs	4.6 (50th)	3.6 (125th)
Turnovers/TOs Gained	7 (84th)	8 (19th)