Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Pitt

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals linebacker Antonio Watts (9) celebrates his interception as Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Denzel Lowry (45) cheers in the first half against Bowling Green at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky Sept. 20, 2025. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Panthers (2-1, 0-0 ACC) on Saturday, Sept. 27 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Pitt	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	122nd	126th
SOR	87th	33rd
SP+	39th	26th
FPI	60th	38th
Sagarin	41st	25th
Kelley Ford	53rd	32nd
CFB Graphs	63rd	49th

Offensive Statistics

	Pitt	Louisville
Total Offense	53rd (424.3)	57th (415.0)
Yards Per Play	37th (6.53)	28th (6.84)
Scoring Offense	17th (43.3)	28th (39.7)
Passing Yards	19th (315.0)	42nd (259.0)
Yards Per Completion	25th (13.70)	50th (12.53)
Rushing Yards	117th (109.3)	76th (156.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	108th (3.77)	32nd (5.26)
First Downs Gained	118th (58)	113th (61)
3rd Down Con. %	92nd (37.5%)	51st (44.1%)
4th Down Con. %	72nd (50.0%)	72nd (50.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	59th (88.9%)	53rd (90.0%)
Turnovers Lost	31st (3)	77th (5)
Interceptions Thrown	69th (3)	43rd (3)
Fumbles Lost	1st (0)	67th (2)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	85th (5.67)	61st (5.00)
Sacks Allowed	117th (2.67)	80th (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	126th (25:38)	92nd (29:02)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Pitt	Louisville
Total Defense	30th (283.7)	16th (244.7)
Yards Allowed Per Play	14th (3.94)	16th (4.06)
Scoring Defense	45th (19.0)	29th (16.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	64th (202.7)	4th (114.7)
Rushing Yards Allowed	16th (81.0)	58th (130.0)
First Downs Allowed	19th (49)	12th (43)
3rd Down Defensive %	21st (26.5%)	47th (33.3%)
4th Down Defensive %	90th (62.5%)	23rd (33.3%)
Red Zone Defensive %	92nd (90.9%)	6th (60.0%)
Turnovers Gained	91st (3)	74th (4)
Interceptions Caught	80th (2)	43rd (3)
Fumbles Recovered	70th (1)	70th (1)
TFL Per Game	2nd (10.00)	92nd (5.0)
Sacks Per Game	1st (4.0)	12th (3.33)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Pitt	Louisville
Net Punting	40th (41.75)	127th (33.00)
Avg. Kickoff Return	22nd (28.29)	7th (35.60)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	36th (16.33)	54th (18.14)
Avg. Punt Return	14th (17.91)	3rd (26.67)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	36th (2.67)	87th (9.00)
Field Goal Attempts	6-7	7-7
PAT	14-15	10-11

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 57.0 percent chance to win against the Panthers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 7.8 (38th overall), whereas Pitt has an FPI rating of 2.2 (60th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 58.39 percent chance to take down the Panthers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 14.3 (26th overall), whereas Pitt has an SP+ rating of 8.2 (38th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 55 percent chance to defeat the Panthers. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.1 (32nd overall), whereas Pitt has a KFord rating of 4.7 (53rd overall)

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 47.5 percent chance to take down the Panthers. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.007 (49th overall), whereas Pitt has an EPA Margin rating of 0.002 (63rd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Pitt 21.

(Photo of Louisville Players: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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