Miami Hurricanes Football Has Lowest Chance Of Winning ACC Despite Being Ranked Highest In The Conference
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The Hurricanes' chances of just making the playoffs plummeted severely after the underwhelming and dramatic loss to Southern Methodist last Saturday afternoon.
The large hopes Hurricanes fans once had of winning the ACC have dwindled to a single-digit percentage. Miami plays against unranked NC State this Saturday and they destroyed Syracuse 38 to 10 last Saturday.
Reaching the playoffs is still not impossible, but the light at the end of the tunnel gets darker and darker week after week. Miami moved up one spot in the rankings Sunday morning and are now ranked No. 15.
Miami has a 6% chance to appear
Head coach Mario Cristobal is going to have to rally up the troops in a big way going into these last few games of the reason. Miami's fate will be decided by winning out and other teams in the ACC falling in dramatic fashion. The Hurricanes face NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh to close out the regular season. Pittsburgh is currently ranked No. 22 while the other two schools are unranked.
According to ESPN analytics, the Miami Hurricanes football team has a 6% to appear in the ACC Championship game and just a 4% chance to win the game. Both percentages are the smallest in the conference among ranked teams. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have an overwhelming lead on the likelihood of appearing and winning the ACC Championship.
Even though Miami is the highest-ranked ACC team in this week's CFP Rankings at No. 15, its best path to the playoffs is likely as an at-large team.
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) November 12, 2025
The Hurricanes currently have the lowest chance to reach the ACC title game (6%) of the remaining teams in contention, according… pic.twitter.com/jBWTPjbx1v
Georgia Tech leads ACC
Georgia Tech slipped down from No. 8 to No. 16 after their first loss of the season to NC State. The Yellow Jackets fell to the Wolfpack 48 to 36. Georgia Tech plays unranked Boston College this Saturday at 3:30pm on ACC Network in Massachusetts.
Georgia Tech also has the highest odds of winning the ACC at 55% to appear in the game and a 35% chance to win the entire conference. The Yellow Jackets close their season with games against Pittsburgh and the Georgia Bulldogs. No. 19 Virginia follows Georgia Tech with a 36% chance to also appear in the game with them and a 14% chance to win the conference. Louisville and Pittsburgh both have similar chances, but still higher than top-ranked Miami.
Duke and SMU were also given a 20% chance each to win the ACC.
Who do the competitors play this week?
Miami does not have a clear path to the college football playoffs. Due to their two losses, Miami will likely need to be an at-large team in order to get into the dance. No. 19 Virginia plays Duke this Saturday afternoon at 3:30pm Eastern on ACC Network. No. 20 Louisville, who beat the Hurricanes earlier this season, plays against unranked Clemson this Friday night at 7:30pm Eastern on ESPN. Pittsburgh plays against No. 9 Notre Dame, who the Hurricanes beat to start the season, this Saturday afternoon at 12:00pm Eastern on ABC.
The Hurricanes will be hoping for as many losses to their ACC competitors as possible this weekend. None of those possible losses will matter if Miami doesn't beat NC State this Saturday at 3:30pm Eastern on ESPN.
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