Predicting What Michigan Basketball Players Will Do: Stay, NBA Draft, or Transfer?

Will Michigan be able to retain at least one key piece?

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In his second season in Ann Arbor, Dusty May has built a powerhouse program and is on top of the college basketball world. May and Michigan defeated UConn on Monday night, 69-63, but they quickly had to shift their focus on the 2026-27 roster.

The transfer portal opened up first thing Tuesday morning, and May's staff was on the phones recruiting. Michigan is already set to lose four players from its championship team, and now May will have to try and sell coming back another year to both Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. — who both have first-round projections.

I'm going to predict what both Mara and Johnson are going to do, along with another potential portal entry.

Center Aday Mara

Looking at three different updated NBA mock drafts, Mara was predicted to go as high as No. 15 and as low as No. 23.

Mara played two seasons at UCLA, but never looked like the same player we saw in one season at Michigan. Mara's minutes took a big increase and coach May trusted the 7'3" big man to start 39 games for the Wolverines.

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Mara never made a three in college basketball heading into the 2025-26 season, yet he made 30% of his attempts. Mara also averaged 12.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and was the top blocker in college basketball, averaging 2.6 blocks per game.

Obviously, Mara could choose to use his final year of eligibility, but I'm not sure Mara has anything else to prove. Sure, he could come back and continue to work on his jump shot, but in the NBA, age can be a detriment at times. Mara has shown the development NBA teams want to see, and being an old-school center, his draft stock might not get much higher than it is now.

Prediction: NBA Draft

Forward Morez Johnson Jr.

Looking at the same mock drafts, Johnson Jr. is predicted to go mid-to-late first round, and his decision could be more difficult than Mara's.

Johnson Jr. put up solid numbers in Ann Arbor during his sophomore season, averaging 13.1 points and 7.3 rebounds. He was a ball of energy and flashed athleticism out of this world. But Johnson Jr.'s only fault was that he just went away at times and struggled to get back into rhythm.

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Johnson Jr. could follow Yaxel Lendborg's path of being projected as a late first-round pick, but come back to college for one more season and turn into Lottery consideration. Coming back one more season would serve Johnson Jr. well, playing in Dusty May's system, while being a focal point.

It's also possible Michigan could offer Johnson Jr. a similar NIL deal as he would get if he was a late first-round pick. It could be a win-win for both parties.

Prediction: Goes through NBA Draft process, returns to Michigan

Guard Winters Grady

The former four-star sharpshooter suffered a season-ending injury after seeing just nine games of action, and took a redshirt season.

Initially, I didn't think Grady would go anywhere. He spoke about developing his game and making an impact on the court for Michigan next season, but the addition of five-star Brandon McCoy Jr. might be the writing on the wall for Grady.

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The former top-100 prospect wants to play, but it's possible he would have to take a minimal role next season as he did this year, while healthy. There will be plenty of programs who would offer Grady a payday, while offering him a chance to start on their team next year.

Coming off an injury and Michigan having a star-studded six-man freshmen class, it wouldn't be shocking to see him go somewhere else next season for a bigger role.

Prediction: Transfer