Best bet to take in Michigan at USC

The analytics in this game are extremely even on Michigan and USC. On a neutral field, KFord Ratings has Michigan as a 17.9 and USC at a 17.3. That means Michigan would be favored over a completely average college football team by 17.9 points, while USC would be favored over the completely average college team by 17.3. The difference between the two teams is a minuscule .6 points in terms of power ratings. Obviously, that means it's an extremely evenly matched game in this one which is why I think the matchup aspect of this game will ultimately determine who wins it.

Michigan wants to be a smash mouth run it down your throat type team and USC is a skill based team who wants to throw it all over the yard. In games like these, it essentially comes down to who can force the other team to play how they want them to play. More often than not, the team who can run the ball and play better defense has more success in getting the other team to play in a phone booth than the team who wants to get out and run with tempo and try to tire out the other team. If Michigan can sustain success on the ground and turn it into a low possession game based on defense and field position, they should be able to control the game. If they can’t run the ball and USC is able to get out and turn this into a track meet, it could be a long day for the Wolverines' secondary.

Another aspect of this game that I think favors the Wolverines more than Vegas expects is the supposed home field advantage. For a standard college football game they typically factor in about 2-4 points depending on the relative strength of the home field advantage. The interesting aspect of this game being at home for USC is I actually think Vegas might be overcounting USC's expected home field advantage against Michigan.

As Michigan fans are probably aware, there's a very heavy west coast contingency of Michigan fans and I expect the crowd split in this game to be something more like 60% USC to 40% Michigan fans. Because you'd typically add 2-4 points for the home field advantage, Vegas put the line at -2.5 for the home team in USC. But based on the KFord ratings and my personal belief that the home field advantage for USC will essentially be nullified with a 60-40 crowd split, I think Vegas is underrating the Wolverines in this game.

Combine the KFord Ratings with what will be essentially a 0-point home field advantage for USC in this game and that would lead me to a 0.6 point advantage in the power ratings world for Michigan in this game and I beleive that's how it will play out. I got Michigan winning this game 28-27 so give me the Wolverines to cover the +2.5 and win outright on the road.

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