Valspar Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Jordan Spieth, Jacob Bridgeman, Corey Conners

Another week, another big cash for the SI Golf betting panel! Only last week, it was two longshot hits.

Let’s stay hot!

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

I hit Cameron Young +5000 outright at The Players last week and also cashed a five-way chop of first-round lead with Maverick McNealy +5200. That follows BK hitting Nico Echavarria +6000 at the Cognizant, Byron hitting Aldrich Potgieter Top 5 +5500 at Genesis and my Justin Rose +6000 cash at Torrey earlier in the season. Brad has hit a few outrights on his personal Discord as well and we have two runner-ups on the panel this year.

Of course, you’re only as good as your last performance. We’re all motivated to keep the good times rolling at Valspar.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook is one of the toughest on Tour. You can’t overpower it. It’s all about accuracy tee-to-green, strong performance on the long Par 3s, bogey avoidance and spiking with the putter.

After two straight signature events, the top-end talent has diminished, but only minimally. There are plenty of big names in the field, including last week’s runner-up Matthew Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele and defending champion Viktor Hovland.

This event has seen a mix of favorites and longshots win in the past. There is a correlation between past and present success here, but Peter Malnati spiked out of nowhere to win in 2024, giving everyone hope they can take home the title.

Let’s get into our picks with full breakdowns below the graphic.

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Ryo Hisatsune +4600 (DraftKings)

Ryo Hisatsune has gained significant strokes from tee to green in every event he’s played this season, while posting a T13 or better finish in four of his last six starts, including at last week’s Players Championship. He now returns to an event where he posted a top-five finish last year. Things are lining up for Hisatsune to get his first PGA Tour win.

Brian Kirschner: Jordan Spieth +2800 (Bet365)

Look, is Jordan Speith likely going to do something dumb to shoot his way out of the golf tournament? Yes, but I think he is playing a lot better than it may seem. He has finished T11, T12 and T32 in his last three starts, and he has never played well at Sawgrass. The approach numbers were excellent last week, gaining 6.4 strokes to the field. A win and a T3 recently should set up well for him.

Brad Thomas: Corey Conners +3300 (DraftKings)

Jacob Bridgeman is the man and will probably win this tournament. If you do not have money on him, then you are missing out. Since the entire panel is on Bridgeman, including myself, I wanted to give you an alternative. Mr. Corey Conners. His putter may stink, but he can fairway and green his way to contention. All we need is a neutral putter to actually win.

Byron Lindeque: Jacob Bridgeman +2250 (DraftKings)

Bridgeman finished 3rd here last year and now has three top 10s, including a win, in his last five PGA starts. He has not finished worse than 18th this season and ranks seventh in my Micro Model, so his course history here makes a lot of sense given the course fit. He is easily the most in-form option in this field and priced beneath multiple other bigger names like Hovland, Ftizpatrick and Schauffele. If it weren’t for the 16th, Jacob would have had very little water under the bridge last week, with three water balls on that Par 5 en route to a T5 at The Players.

Cody Williams: Jacob Bridgeman +2250 (DraftKings)

I almost want to put an up arrow to just reiterate everything Byron said on the matter. Bridgeman has been hot, with seven Top 20 finishes in seven starts to begin the 2026 season, three of which were Top 5s (including his win at the Genesis) and four total Top 10s. He’s also Top 30 in both Good Drive Percentage and SG: Approach, while third in SG: Putting on Bermuda. The odds are short, sure, but the form and fit for a guy who finished solo third at Valspar last year are too strong to ignore.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Højgaard +3700 (Bet365)

Back to the well with Nicolai, who I keep betting on these target golf courses. Why? He’s highly accurate and a good putter. He gained six strokes putting last week at The Players and has gained strokes on approach in his last four events. He’s seventh on tour in bogey avoidance and 18th in SG: Approach. T3 at the WM and T6 at Cognizant, he feels due for his first PGA Tour win. This course should set up well for him.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Billy Horschel +12500 (DraftKings)

Billy Horschel thrives at events that take place at difficult courses where scrambling for par is sometimes more valuable than racking up birdies, and that’s exactly what the Valspar Championship is. He has finished T4 and T12 here the past two seasons, and he’s coming off a T13 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s worth a sprinkle at 125-1 this week.

Brian Kirschner: Max Homa +7000 (FanDuel)

Another former American Ryder Cupper looking to get back in the winner's circle this week. Max made a million birdies last week at Sawgrass, but also a lot of bogeys, which is expected at a place like Sawgrass! I am willing to discount that and focus on the good. T6 in his last appearance, I like Max to play well this week.

Brad Thomas: David Ford +12500 (Bet365)

Innisbrook is all about precision. Fairways and greens. That’s the formula, and it consistently rewards elite ball strikers. Over the last 36 measured rounds (22 for Ford), he ranks second in this field in ball striking and is the only player inside the top 10 in both SG: Approach and driving accuracy. His game has been all over the place, but he has crazy game. If he can putt well, he may find himself in contention.

Byron Lindeque: Davis Riley +5600 Top 5 (DraftKings)

We are rolling out a longshot Top 5 again in the form of Davis Riley, who has had inexplicably good results at this golf course over the last four years, finishing 7th last year, MC, 19th and losing to Sam Burns in a playoff in 2022. The recent form for Riley is that of a hungover guys golf trip - tired, uninspired, but one more bloody Mary away from momentary magic. A T6 at the Sony Open earlier this year is just enough recent form to believe that we have a chance this week.

Cody Williams: Zac Blair +20000 (Bet365)

Let’s get weird. Though the data set is limited, Blair finished T8 at Puerto Rico and, in measured rounds, would rank first in SG: Approach over the last 24 in this field. His lack of length is severe, but also shouldn’t be exceptionally penal here. When in form, we’ve also seen Blair have success at the Copperhead Course, coming through with a T10 in 2023. It’s not a complete profile, but there are things to like and a 200/1 price tag is a bit egregious all things considered.

Brian Giuffra: Austin Smotherman +5300 (DraftKings)

After hitting Young (+5000) and Justin Rose (+6000) in this spot this year, I’ve been accused of trying to rewrite what a longshot is. +5000 odds represent a 2% implied probability. That's a longshot to me! T13 at The Players last week and T2 at Cognizant and T8 at Amex with cuts and a WD as his other finishes, we’ll know early if Smotherman has his stuff this week. Putting is typically an issue, but he’s first in SG: Approach on Tour this year, 8th in GIR% and 12th in proximity. If the putter cooperates, we could be cooking again.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Austin Smotherman +6100 (DraftKings)

Austin Smotherman is a great fit for this course. He’s 20th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy while ranking sixth in overall strokes-gained tee to green. He also heads into this event ranking 12th in Round 1 scoring average at 68.57. After a strong outing at last week’s Players Championship, let’s bet on him getting off to a hot start in Tampa this week.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Rodgers +6000 (DraftKings)

Can he win? No, but he absolutely can be FRL at the Valspar. Rodgers has had back-to-back great starts on Tour with a solid T11 last week at the Players where he gained in all major categories. I like him to fire off a low round on Thursday.

Brad Thomas: Taylor Moore +8000 (DraftKings)

I’m backing a past champion (2023) who can get super hot and is second in strokes gained total in the first round this season.

Byron Lindeque: Austin Smotherman +6100 (DraftKings)

Austin's average of +1.8 strokes gained on Thursday is his best split of the four rounds. His Thursday performances have been stellar this year and he has an 8 AM tee time to go post a low one before the course dries out and the wind picks up a little in the afternoon. He has been playing really solid golf lately too, so R1 is not the only market I am targeting him this week.

Cody Williams: Ryo Hisatsune +5800 (DraftKings)

Hisatsune is, indeed, a great fit this week at the Valspar with a T4 here last year, along with top-end ball-striking and form coming into the event. On top of that, he’s also 14th on the PGA Tour this season in first-round scoring. He’s had no qualms with coming out firing, and I might actually like Hisatsune better for FRL than I do as an outright winner.

Brian Giuffra: Wyndham Clark +6100 (DraftKings)

Clark is 16th on Tour in birdie average and averages a solid 69.67 in first-round scoring. His putting has been an issue, but he can still spike as he did at AmEx where he finished T13. He gained over four strokes on approach at Players and has gained on approach in his last four events. I don’t think he will win, but I could see him shooting the low round of the week.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Gordon Sargent Make the Cut +150

We’ve been waiting for Gordon Sargent to announce his presence on the PGA Tour and a T8 finish at the Puerto Rico Open could finally be a sign of positive things to come from the 22-year-old. He’s long off the tee, but his driving accuracy has been an issue at times, but he had an above-average driving accuracy performance in Puerto Rico. If he can keep that up this week, he’ll be a strong candidate to make the cut.

Brian Kirschner: JJ Spaun Top 20 +130 (DraftKings)

I have not hit a winner in this category all year, but I have given out a 66/1 winner and two that were very, very close. However, I definitely do deserve some hate for how bad it's been. JJ Spaun bounces back after a bout with vertigo and finishes top 20 this week.

Brad Thomas: Blades Brown Top 20 +400 including ties (Bet365)

Blades Brown makes his fourth TOUR start of the season and already has two top-20 finishes, including a T18 at The American Express and a solo third at the Puerto Rico Open. The talent is obvious, and he’s beginning to settle in. After contending in Puerto Rico, he has a good chance to impress once again

Byron Lindeque: Justin Thomas Top 10 +240 (Including Ties)

Fresh off a T8 at the Players, JT heads to Innisbrook, where he finished 2nd last year, 64th, 10th, 3rd and 13th in his last five appearances. What made this bet even more enticing was the fact that Thomas finishes inside the Top 10 as often as he does the Top 20, with a 39% Top 10 and Top 20 rate over the last 14 months. Hopefully, he continues to Top 10 when he plays good golf, which we can expect given his short-term form and course history.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland and Ryo Hisatsune to finish Top 20 incl ties +309 (FanDuel)

I’ve learned my lesson betting Hovland outright (I haven’t), but I still can’t ignore the form. The same is true with Hisatsune coming into this week. So let’s protect ourselves a bit more to just get both players into the Top 20 and then go on about our days.

Brian Giuffra: Jacob Bridgeman Top 20 +125 (FanDuel)

I considered Bridgeman outright here, as I’m sure most did, but ultimately felt more comfortable betting this market on him. Byron touched on it earlier – Bridgeman has a great track record here and is in top form heading. He’s been Top 20 in all seven events he’s played this year. At plus money, I couldn’t pass it up.

Winning Score Prediciton

Iain MacMillan: -12
Brian Kirschner: -12
Brad Thomas: -10
Byron Lindeque: -15
Cody Williams: -11
Brian Giuffra: -13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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