Realistic expectations for Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood in 2025

Michigan football made some history last recruiting cycle when it flipped the No. 1 player in the 2025 class from LSU -- QB Bryce Underwood. With the Belleville product staying home, Michigan now has some major expectations entering the 2025 season. After going 8-5, and having the 131st-ranked passing attack, both Underwood and new OC Chip Lindsey are expected to fix that.

Underwood is on track to start in Week 1 against New Mexico -- even if Sherrone Moore isn't going to announce it yet -- but fans must remember that he is a true freshman. So what are the realistic expectations for Underwood in Year 1 with the Wolverines?

I decided to go back to the past 10 years and see how the top-ranked QB played in their true freshman season. I used the 247Sports' Composite rankings to determine who was the top-ranked player from the class.

Bryce Underwoo — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2024 Julian Sayin -- No. 1 QB, No. 6 overall (Alabama/Ohio State)
-Backup (5-of-12 for 84 yards and one TD)

2023 Arch Manning -- No. 1 player overall (Texas)
-Backup (2-of-5 for 30 yards)

2022 Cade Klubnik -- No. 1 QB, No. 6 overall (Clemson)
-10 games played with two starts (61-of-100 for 697 yards, two TDs and three INTs)

2021 Quinn Ewers -- No. 1 player overall (Ohio State)
-Didn't play and transferred to Texas after freshman year

2020 Bryce Young -- No. 1 QB, No. 2 overall (Alabama)
-Backup (13-of-22 for 156 yards and one touchdown

2019 Spender Rattler -- No. 1 QB, No. 11 overall (Oklahoma)
-Backup (7-of-11 for 81 yards and one touchdown)

2018 Trevor Lawrence -- No. 1 overall player (Clemson)
-15 games and took over as starter (259-of-397 for 3,280 yards, 30 TDs, and four INTs)

2017 Davis Mills -- No. 1 QB, No. 15 overall (Stanford)
-Backup (0-of-2)

2016 Shea Patterson -- No. 1 QB, No. 4 overall (Ole Miss)
-Three games played with three starts (72-of-132 for 880 yards, six TDs, and three INTs; 41 carries for 169 yards)

2015 Josh Rosen -- No. 1 QB, No. 11 overall (UCLA)
-Starter (292-of-487 for 3,670 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 INTs

As you can see from the past 10 years, only two QBs started most of their freshman seasons: Trevor Lawrence and Josh Rosen. Even being the top-rated signal caller coming out of high school doesn't usually mean you're going to start right away. There is a learning curve when it comes to college football, but by all accounts from teammates and coaches, Underwood is on another level.

Michigan hasn't had a 3,000-yard passer in a long time -- Shea Patterson back in 2019 with 3,061 yards. In fact, John Navarre still holds the single-season passing record of 3,331 yards set back in 2003.

If Underwood has the Lawrence/Rosen route, he has a legit chance to break that in his freshman campaign. But we also have to consider the team Underwood plays for. Michigan loves to pound the rock and the Wolverines have a new one-two punch at RB that they will use. Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes will take plenty of pressure off of Underwood's shoulders -- at least early on.

So what are realistic expectations? Looking back on J.J. McCarthy's two seasons as the starter, he threw for 2,719 and 2,991 yards in his two seasons leading Michigan. If Underwood starts all year, Wolverine fans might be looking at those type of numbers from their freshman five-star signal caller.

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