Predictions for Michigan State's Big Game vs. Arkansas

Here are my thoughts on how MSU's contest against the Razorbacks will go.

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, right, is fouled while making a basket against Colgate during the second half on Monday, Nov. 3, 2025, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 22 Michigan State (1-0) is going to want this one against No. 14 Arkansas (1-0). Saturday's game, which begins at 7 p.m. ET on FOX, could be a tone-setter for the Spartans this season; that can be good or bad.

Both teams started with victories over opponents they should beat back on Monday. MSU got past Colgate, 80-69. The Razorbacks crushed Southern, 109-77.

Michigan State center Carson Cooper battles for a rebound during a game against Colgate on Nov. 3, 2025. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

During exhibitions, the Spartans beat Bowling Green, 75-66, and lost at No. 4 UConn, 76-69. Arkansas took exhibitions against Cincinnati, 89-61, and at Memphis, 99-75.

This is how I think this prime-time battle will go down on Saturday, with a final score prediction at the end.

Game Breakdown and Prediction

Oct 24, 2025; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr (5) during the second half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 89-61. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Razorbacks are the more talented team in this one. Head coach John Calipari brought in the 5th-best recruiting class this year, according to 247Sports, obtaining two five-star recruits, two four-stars, and one three-star.

Those two five-star guys are guard Darius Acuff (No. 5 overall) and Meleek Thomas (No. 13 overall). Both players were instant contributors against Southern. Acuff scored 22 points, with 20 coming in the first half. Thomas had 21 points and seven assists coming off the bench.

Arkansas' best player who was on the team last year is D.J. Wagner. He is another former five-star recruit who began his college career with Calipari at Kentucky. Last season, Wagner averaged 11.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game.

With all the talent that the Razorbacks have in the backcourt, the play from Michigan State's guards will be a critical component of this game.

Mar 22, 2025; Providence, RI, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard D.J. Wagner (21) drives against St. John's Red Storm forward Zuby Ejiofor (24) during the first half of a second round men’s NCAA Tournament game at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Tom Izzo has stressed that his guards have not played good enough defense so far this year, which has led to some problems with dribble penetration and rebounding.

Given the skill and shotmaking that the Razorbacks' guards have, I believe that will be the biggest problem for MSU in this game.

That being said, this game is in the Breslin Center. With Izzo as head coach, Michigan State is 83-1 at home during the month of November. The Spartans were 4-0 against AP Top 25 teams in East Lansing last year, too.

While plenty of those victories have come against teams much, much weaker than Arkansas, a home winning percentage of .988 is really, really impressive. Especially with the football team failing to provide reasons for hope, I expect a loud and lively atmosphere from both the Izzone and everyone else that could be the difference in the game.

Final Prediction: Michigan State 75, Arkansas 71

Mar 28, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo in the second half of a South Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament against the Mississippi Rebels at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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