2 Big Predictions, 1 Major Factor for MSU at Wisconsin
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Michigan State is entering into one of its more interesting games this season.
The 10th-ranked Spartans (20-4 overall, 10-3 Big Ten) are gearing up to take on unranked Wisconsin (17-7, 9-4), but this is no sneaky road game against a mediocre, unranked foe. On any given night, the Badgers can beat anybody, now holding wins over current No. 2 Michigan and eighth-ranked Illinois (which came on Tuesday).
Friday's game (8 p.m. ET, FOX) will be a big one for MSU. It'll be another look at how it handles a Quad 1 opportunity while also playing inside a hostile environment against a team that has gathered some sudden momentum at a good time.
Here are a few things to know about this game, and then also a final score prediction at the end:
MSU's Defense will be Stretched
One thing is for sure in this one: Wisconsin is going to let the threes fly. The Badgers aren't particularly effective on any given shot --- their season-wide percentage of 35.0% ranks 124th in the nation, but their 31.5 three-point attempts per contest is the 11th-most in the nation and the most in the Big Ten.
That three-point shot-making was a big reason UW was able to pull the upset at Illinois earlier this week. It made a season-high 16 threes on 36 attempts, or a pretty good mark of 44.4%. This one will be a nice test for Michigan State's defense, which has allowed its Big Ten opponents to make 30.3% of their threes this season.
Defending Without Fouling Critical
Jeremy Fears Jr. and Jordan Scott, the Spartans' one and two guards, have maybe been MSU's two most valuable players lately, particularly Fears. If either of them were to get in foul trouble, it would be a pretty big blow for Michigan State in any given game.
This game will be a challenge for them in that regard. Wisconsin's Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combine for about 39 points per game and have accounted for 45.8% of the Badgers' scoring this season. They also have averaged about 12 free throws per game combined, showing adeptness at getting to the line. Fears and Scott have to be aggressive defensively in this one, but not so aggressive that they get glued to the bench.
Clean Up the Glass
Michigan State should be able to command the boards in this one. The Spartans were plus-10 this past Saturday against Illinois, one of the only teams who can truly challenge MSU on the glass. The Fighting Illini were plus-3 this past Tuesday against the Badgers, but allowed UW to grab 14 offensive rebounds. That's the type of number that might make Tom Izzo pull his hair out.
That's usually not the case for Wisconsin, though. Probably because it takes so many threes, the Badgers have ranked 13th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding rate this season, according to KenPom. Michigan State is first in the entire country in defensive rebounding rate.
Final Prediction: No. 10 Michigan State 76, Wisconsin 68
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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