Full Michigan State vs. Nebraska Football Preview & Prediction
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Big Ten season is now here.
Michigan State (2-1) and new head coach Pat Fitzgerald have a massive opportunity to show instant progress on Saturday against Nebraska (3-0). This doesn't feel like a "must-win" contest for the Spartans, but starting 1-0 in conference play against a more skilled Cornhuskers team would significantly boost the fanbase's confidence and the team's shot at a bowl game.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
Nebraska's defense isn't as spooky as Notre Dame's, but the Cornhuskers' strength is the same as the Fighting Irish's: the secondary. Michigan State never really had its pass game going consistently in South Bend last Saturday. Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic threw for just 123 yards with two interceptions during what was the most difficult start in his young career thus far.
This is also the second straight week MSU will be facing an elite-level cornerback. Last week, it was Notre Dame's Leonard Moore, who is widely considered to be the best corner in college football. Milivojevic only threw it in his direction once, and Moore broke it up.
This week, it's Andrew Marshall, who has only allowed two catches for 10 yards on 11 targets so far in 2026, according to Pro Football Focus. Marshall, a former Idaho transfer, was an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention last year. He'll probably do much better than that with how he's played so far this year.
As a whole, Nebraska allowed just 118.0 pass yards per contest during its non-conference slate, which ranks seventh in the nation entering Week 4. Sure, much of that may be weak competition, but the Cornhuskers finished last season ranked third in the nation in pass defense, allowing 154.1 yards per game. Two of Nebraska's top three cornerbacks from last year -- Marshall and Donovan Jones -- are back in 2026, too.
The Cornhuskers also made a pretty good hire at defensive coordinator, Rob Aurich. He previously coached at San Diego State, where he had the Aztecs ranked 11th in total defense, sixth in scoring defense, and sixth in pass defense during the 2025 season.
Michigan State needs a more sustainable run game against Nebraska than it did against Notre Dame. The Spartans averaged just 3.4 yards per carry (sacks excluded) in South Bend last week. MSU is at 3.7 yards per carry for the season (sacks included now), which ranks 16th in the Big Ten. Nebraska has allowed 3.2 yards per carry so far, which is eighth in the conference.
This should be another big Cam Edwards game. He's been off Michigan State's availability reports thus far, which is definitely positive news after he appeared to hurt his ankle late against Notre Dame. Edwards' 38-yard performance in South Bend doesn't stick out on paper, but it felt more like "Notre Dame's defense is really good" and "MSU's run-blocking isn't great" things than anything from Edwards' end.
For Michigan State to win this game, the Spartans need the biggest leap to come from the offense. MSU still needs a receiver to stake his claim as the team's go-to guy, too. Offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan's play-calling has felt good so far, but the personnel needs to catch up a little bit.
When Nebraska Has the Ball
The Spartans will have a serious shot in this one if their defense pitches a performance similar to what it did at Notre Dame. 27 points to the Fighting Irish's offense on the road is probably equivalent to the low 20s against this Cornhuskers' offensive attack at home.
Nebraska is actually better in a few areas offensively, though. The Cornhuskers' group of receivers and running backs is actually more impressive than what Notre Dame has. Anthony Colandrea isn't CJ Carr, and Notre Dame's offensive line definitely seems better, but Nebraska's group of offensive skill guys is among the better ones MSU will see this year. Only Oregon's feel like an obvious jump.
Michigan State's defense has to, and I mean has to, limit explosive plays. Toledo had two very long touchdowns during Week 1, and Notre Dame took the top off in the pass game twice last week. Well, Nebraska has a very explosive offense. Nebraska has had 23 plays of at least 20 yards this season, which is tied for second in the country.
Six different players have had a catch of 20+ yards, and six different players have had a rush of 20+ yards, so it's also not just coming from one great player or two. There isn't a Jeremiah Smith- or Ashton Jeanty-type offensive figure on this Nebraska offense who looks completely terrifying, but there are a lot of good, above-average, or maybe great players there.
Wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. is the best of the bunch in the pass game so far. He leads Nebraska with 15 catches for 210 yards and has also scored two touchdowns. Barney probably isn't going to speed past the corner or safety in front of him, but he's very elusive and tough to bring down in space. That's why he's also Nebraska's starting punt returner.
One preseason concern in Lincoln was the lack of experience in the backfield. Nebraska had to replace Emmett Johnson, the Big Ten Running Back of the Year in 2025, after all. True freshman Jamal Rule has eased the worries about replacing Johnson. He's got 329 rushing yards already and six total touchdowns, which both rank third in the Big Ten.
MSU's defense also has a couple of injuries to worry about. The Spartans know they'll be without starting linebacker Brady Pretzlaff on Saturday. He appeared to suffer a concussion or some sort of head injury against Notre Dame.
Tyran Chappell, who has perhaps been Michigan State's best corner thus far, has also been listed as questionable on each of the Spartans' availability reports from Wednesday to Friday. He's only allowed two catches on three targets for 12 yards across 53 coverage snaps this year, according to PFF.
Final Thoughts, Prediction
I thought Michigan State would win this game early in the week, and I still wouldn't be stunned if the Spartans do. The more I've looked at Nebraska, though, the better I think the Cornhuskers are. They're an improved team from last year.
MSU has an edge because it's more battle-tested than Nebraska and because it's both Nebraska's first serious opponent and road game, but I still am taking the Cornhuskers in the end during a game that is close for all four quarters.
Final Prediction: Nebraska 24, Michigan State 21
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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