Why MSU Win Over Illinois Crucial for Bowl Game Hopes

Here is what will happen to MSU's season if they win or lose against Illinois.

Sep 19, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Spartans are heading into one of the most important games of the season against the Illinois Fighting Illini, as it is one of the four games that MSU can reasonably win this season to possibly reach a bowl game.

This means the match will have a lot of value, and a win could do a lot to relieve the pressure MSU is facing, being 2-3 and winless in the Big Ten, but a loss will make the road much, much harder than it was before.

Oct 3, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

So here is exactly what will happen to the rest of MSU's season if they win against the Fighting Illini and if they lose.

What Happens if the Spartans Win

Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald, center, walks the end zone with the team before the football game against Nebraska on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

• The best-case scenario is that the Spartans are able to find a victory against Illinois and finally get something going in the Big Ten, which would also mean that they would have gotten something going in the offense on the way, which is something that MSU desperately needs.

• But more than that, it means the Spartans' path to a potential bowl game remains alive, and they would only have to win three more games to become bowl-eligible.

Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald, center, celebrates after MSU stopped Nebraska on fourth down during the third quarter on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

• Those games would be against the Michigan Wolverines, who may be the favorites but are definitely susceptible to an upset due to struggles they are having internally, as well as the fact that it is a rivalry game, the Washington Huskies, who could definitely be the most challenging, and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who are the worst team in the Big Ten as of right now.

What Happens if the Spartans Lose

Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald listens to a referee as Nebraska’s touchdown catch is being reviewed during the first quarter on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

• If the Spartans lose to the Fighting Illini, things get a bit more complicated, as it means that an extra win will be needed to find a bowl game, and it will have to come from among their tougher opponents.

• The only options left would be Northwestern, who has put up a fight with the highly-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, Oregon, who has been highly ranked themselves since the season started, and UCLA, who is one of the most shocking teams in the nation at the moment and is currently undefeated.

Sep 26, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald protests a call that favored the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the first quarter at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• None of those games would be easy to win, nor all that reasonable to win, so it is not too far of a stretch to say that Illinois is a must-win game, and the path to a bowl game will get a lot harder if they lose.