SEC vs Big Ten: Kalshi Gives Big Edge to SEC in College Football National Championship Market

We’re coming up on the halfway mark of the college football season, and Kalshi’s National Championship market gives a strong advantage to the SEC over the Big Ten to win the title this season. Kalshi prices the SEC at 47% to win the title. The Big Ten trails the SEC at 31%, with all other conferences below a 15% chance.

Kalshi settles the market based on which conference wins the college football National Championship. A $10 trade on a team from the SEC winning the title profits $7.55.

Conference to win the National Championship - Kalshi

SEC 47%
Big Ten 31%
Any other conference/Independent 13%
ACC 10%
Big 12 1%

SEC showing dominance beyond this season

In the current National Championship market, only 12 teams have a higher than 1% chance of winning the title this season. Of those 12 teams, six of them are in the SEC.

National Championship winner - Kalshi

Ohio State 17%
Georgia 17%
Texas 14%
Notre Dame 12%
Miami 11%
Alabama 9%
Indiana 7%
LSU 5%
Oregon 5%
Florida 2%
Ole Miss 2%
Texas Tech 2%

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Beyond this season, dating back to the start of the College Football Playoff era in 2015, the SEC has won six of 11 National Championships. However, no SEC team has won in the last three seasons, with the Big Ten claiming each one.

The contenders

Starting at the top of the board, the Georgia Bulldogs are the team to beat in the SEC thus far. Georgia is the leading offense in the country with 51.4 points per game and a top-15 defense allowing just over 13 points. They’ve won every game by 21+ points, including all three SEC opponents.

Texas follows based on the amount of experience on both sides of the ball and what we’ve seen so far this season. The Longhorns have the biggest win of any other team this year after defeating No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2.

The “dark horse” SEC team to make a run is Alabama. Bama has won three of the SEC’s six National Championships over the last 11 years. Alabama is undefeated and has beaten four Power conference teams by at least two touchdowns.

Alabama plays Georgia this week.

On the Big Ten side, defending champion Indiana and Ohio State are the top contenders. They also play in the regular season.

Miami and Notre Dame are the top teams not in either the Big Ten or SEC.

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