Five most winnable games left on Mississippi State’s schedule

Mississippi State football could be five wins from entering the CFP conversation. Here are the Bulldogs’ most likely victories in 2025.

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Luke Kromenhoek (17) celebrates after a touchdown against the Alcorn State Braves during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

It’s a fun time for Mississippi State football.

There’s hope and optimism around the Bulldogs, which is good. Last year was downright depressing and the prior season wasn’t much better.

That leads to the Bulldogs finding themselves on the outer edges of discussions about top 25 rankings and, believe it or not, the College Football Playoff.

Kelley Ford, of KFord Ratings, made a recent post about how many more wins a team needs to be in consideration for an at-large bid in the CFP.

Mississippi State had the lowest number: 5.

Number of additional Regular Season wins that should be enough to merit consideration in the CFP at-large discussion, based on schedule difficulty pic.twitter.com/Qc3v5kju16

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) September 17, 2025

By that standard, if the Bulldogs win five more games then they should be in the conversation for teams receiving an at-large bid.

Please note this isn’t saying if Mississippi State gets five more wins, it’ll be in the playoff. Just that it should be on the list of teams talked about.

Would eight wins be enough for the Bulldogs to get into the playoff? Probably not. They’ll likely need more than eight wins.

But Ford’s ratings does present an interesting question: what are the five games the Bulldogs could win?

We actually have seen teams play, so we can make some better educated guesses than in the preseason.

And that’s what follows, the five games Mississippi State is most likely to win, in order of most likely to least likely, starting with the most obvious choice…

Northern Illinois

I won’t repeat a bunch of stuff written in other stories, but the Bulldogs are heavy favorites and this should be a win.

Now, we move on to the SEC teams.

Arkansas

Arkansas Razorback quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes the ball as Mississippi Rebels defensive lineman Zxavian Harris (51) attempts to break up the pass during the first quarter at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Razorbacks were already marked as one of the SEC teams Mississippi State could likely beat and they haven’t done anything to change that opinion.

Yes, Taylen Green looks great and there’s a long time between now and this game.

But based on how Arkansas has played and how other SEC teams on the schedule have played, the Razorbacks are still the most likely SEC team to fall to the Bulldogs.

Florida

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier screams while surrounded by his team before a game against the South Florida Bulls at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Will Billy Napier still be the head coach when the Bulldogs travel to Gainesville, Fla. on October 18?

The Gators could still turn things around, but based on how they’ve played, the Bulldogs getting a road SEC win actually looks realistic.

Ole Miss

Mississippi Rebels linebacker TJ Dottery (6) reacts after a turnover during the fourth quarter against the Arkansas Razorback at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Rebels don’t look as good as they did last year, but they’re still a good team. That doesn’t matter much, though considering the rivalry aspect.

Tennessee or Texas

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to the pass the ball during the second half against the Texas El Paso Miners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

One of these two orange colored teams is going to either lose in Starkville or come really close.

The cowbells will sound more like they did against Arizona State than they did against Alcorn State (i.e., they won’t stop). Both Tennessee and Texas have quarterbacks who have never experienced it. Plus, the fans will be amped up for different reasons.

For Tennessee, the Bulldogs are likely to be 4-0 and this will be the first SEC game.

For Texas, Arch Manning better hope he starts living up to the preseason hype or hope one of his uncles has a secret to handle the cowbells. Just with the last name “Manning” you can expect the cowbells to be really loud.