Alcorn State at Mississippi State: No prediction needed for this one

The Bulldogs host FCS school Alcorn State at 5 p.m. Saturday in a game without much drama about who will win. Instead, here's what to look for.

Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Fluff Bothwell (24) runs the ball as Arizona State Sun Devils linebacker Martell Hughes (18) makes the tackle during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Let’s dispense of the small talk.

This isn’t a prediction column like the ones published the Friday before games against Southern Miss and Arizona State.

No prediction needs to be made about the Bulldogs facing Alcorn State. Mississippi State is going to win by multiple touchdowns and the Braves will be lucky to score one before the fourth quarter.

Don’t just take my word for it. Here’s ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ projection for the Bulldogs and Braves:

Bill Connelly’s SP+ Projections

Projected winner: Mississippi State
Projected margin: 46.4
Win probability: 100 percent
Projected score: 50-3

But Taylor, upsets do happen. How many times have we seen “anything can happen” from you?

Yes, dear reader they do happen.

In fact, it happened six times last season. Those losing FBS teams were New Mexico, Kent State, Wyoming, UTEP, FIU, Kennesaw State.

The last time a Power 4 team lost to an FCS school was 2023, when Stanford lost to Sacramento State. The last time an SEC school lost to an FCS program was Vanderbilt to East Tennessee State in 2021.

So, while FCS teams beating an FBS team does happen, Mississippi State is a lot better than any of the eight previously mentioned FBS teams.

That’s why instead of making a prediction, let’s define what a win for the Bulldogs will look like Saturday. We’ll ignore the scoreboard or any gameplan strategies and focus on what the Bulldogs need to do or show for the game to be a good win and not a “we just showed up and won” style win.

When @HailStateFB (📸) takes on Alcorn State for the third time ever tomorrow, they'll once again be wearing the classic 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐧-𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐧-𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐞 color combination!

The more things change, the more they stay the same.#HailState🐶🏈 pic.twitter.com/UafuuGwZl2

— HailStateUnis (@hailstateunis) September 12, 2025

Run the ball

The Bulldogs have 252 rushing yards through two games, most of which came against Southern Miss. Last week against Arizona State, they had 66 yards on 30 runs. That’s barely two yards per carry.

Coach Jeff Lebby’s offense needs an effective rushing attack that can bring more defenders close to the line of scrimmage and let the speedy receivers fly behind them.

The Bulldogs caught a little bit of luck last week with a bad defensive play call by the Sun Devils. Lucky breaks like that aren’t a given each week. But this isn’t something the Bulldogs themselves aren’t aware of.

“Run game for sure,” center Canon Boone said this week when asked what the focus in practice has been. “That's one thing we really have to nail down and be super successful at opening things up, you know, all across the board in the offense.”

The goal for Saturday should be well over 100 rushing yards and a yards per carry above five.

Defensive line disruption

Mississippi State Defensive Lineman Kalvin Dinkins (#35) during the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, MS. | Mississippi State Athletics

As it’s been said before, the loss of Will Whitson is an enormous loss for Mississippi State.

Through two games we was a disruptive force, spending most of his time in the opposition’s backfield. But he wasn’t the only one.

The defensive line, as a whole, has been super impressive so far and may be the most improved group from last season.

Now, we want to see them continue to be a disruptive force without the player who was looking like the best of the bunch.

No interceptions thrown

Blake Shapen did a good job last week of not turning the ball over (via interception, there was that turnover on downs but that was more of the officials missing a penalty) against a defensive secondary that was in the College Football Playoff last year.

This week, against an inferior team, the trend of no interceptions should continue. And I mean, real interceptions, not some fluke, tipped pass that lands right in a defender’s lap.

Keep penalties trending down

One thing that was overlooked in Saturday’s game was how many fewer penalties Mississippi State had.

In the first game against Southern Miss, the Bulldogs had 14 penalties. Against Arizona State they had six (none of which were illegal formation penalties on offensive tackles).

That’s a great improvement and we should see the downward trajectory of penalties called continue this week.