Examining Mississippi State’s road to bowl eligibility after SEC setbacks

It wasn’t that long ago that Mississippi State’s chances of reaching bowl eligibility seem like a slam dunk prediction.

Florida was getting its pitchforks ready to fire Billy Napier, Arkansas was on a bye week after back-to-back close losses, Texas had just demolished Sam Houston State and Ole Miss wasn’t a top 10-ranked team.

Don’t forget about the hype and excitement around Mississippi State before its SEC opener against Tennessee.

But things change quickly in college football.

Florida just beat Texas, who is now unranked after being the preseason No. 1 team, Arkansas is riding with Bobby Petrino for the rest of the season, Ole Miss is the highest-ranked SEC team, just one spot ahead of Texas A&M, and Georgia lost to Alabama…again.

Mississippi State’s season outlook has taken a hit, too. Back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M have seen the Bulldogs fall in several rankings and ratings systems.

The Bulldogs received just 10 votes in the AP Top 25 Poll this week (after receiving more than 100 two weeks ago), rank No. 45 in the Football Power Index (15th among SEC teams), SP+ rankings have the Bulldogs ranked No. 42 (a 15 spot drop from last week), KFord Ratings have them at No. 46 and have only a 46.6 percent chance of reaching six wins.

On the bright side, all of those rankings are better than what Mississippi State had a year ago.

But reaching that magical number of wins to become bowl eligible isn’t as easy as it was before SEC play started.

Or is it?

Mississippi State has six games left in its season and needs to win just two. Which games offer the best chance to do that?

Arkansas

We should wait to see how the Razorbacks play with Petrino as interim head coach because they’re not a bad team. Arkansas is two fumbles away from being 4-1 right now.

But considering the teams listed below, if the Bulldogs want to go bowling this is a must-win game.

Florida

Until last week, this was just as good of an opportunity for the Bulldogs to get a win as Arkansas.

But then the Gators played great against Texas and suddenly look more like the Florida team we were expecting.

So, now the odds aren’t as high but you never really know with Florida, do you?

Ole Miss

For some reason, Ole Miss ranked fourth nationally feels too high and the Rebels are likely to lose one game it should win this season.

Also, it’s the Egg Bowl. Records and previous season performance doesn’t matter much in that game.

Texas

This game has huge upset potential for Mississippi State.

The Longhorns offense has not looked good this season and they’re going to come to Starkville. They’ll have experience playing in loud stadiums, but the cowbells are different.

If Texas’s defense was struggling, too, this game would be ranked higher. But it’s not (No. 5 scoring defense in the nation).

Missouri

For all the good things written on this site about Mississippi State’s defense, there is still one flaw: stopping the run.

Against Texas A&M, the Bulldogs gave up 299 rushing yards with a 5.5 yards per carry. Opposing offenses are averaging 162.7 yards per game and in three games against Power 4 teams, that average jumps up to 227 yards per game.

Missouri has the nation’s third-best rushing offense, averaging 292 yards per game and has the SEC’s leading rusher Ahmad Hardy (730 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns).

Georgia

A three-point loss to Alabama isn’t enough to shake anyone’s belief that Georgia isn’t one of the best teams in the nation.

Georgia is still Georgia and Mississippi State would need a lot of lucky breaks (like Georgia looking ahead to hosting Texas the following week) to have a realistic chance.