Mississippi State’s Jeff Lebby needs more wins to secure coaching future

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, now entering his second year guiding the Bulldogs, knows exactly what’s at stake in the 2025 football season.

And how many wins he’ll need to keep his job.

Mississippi State fans, long accustomed to living in the shadow of most schools in the SEC, are hungry for a breakthrough.

“We want our guys to know what it means to represent this place, and to play with a toughness that travels,” Lebby said at SEC Media Days last year.

Mississippi State Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby speaking at 2024 SEC Kickoff at Omni Dallas Hotel. | Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

Even before they had started practice before his first season he knew the expectations are real and immediate.

The Bulldogs’ 2025 schedule is unforgiving, featuring early tilts against Southern Miss and Arizona State, before the gauntlet of SEC play.

With Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and the annual Egg Bowl rivalry with Ole Miss, it’s the kind of slate that can define a coach’s tenure, for better or for worse.

Last year’s 2-10 finish, in Lebby’s first campaign, left little margin for error.

“I did a bad job getting us ready,” Lebby admitted after a September loss against Arizona State, refusing to sugarcoat the rebuilding pains.

Athletics director Zac Selmon has made it clear that Mississippi State expects to compete at the highest level.

“We are in the hunt for more championships, and we’re going to compete to win with anyone and everyone,” Selmon said in January, a pointed reminder that patience is in short supply.

Mississippi State Bulldogs athletics director Zac Selmon visits with Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter during halftime at Humphrey Coliseum. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Bulldogs’ administration stepped up with a four-year deal worth $4.51 million annually for Lebby, but the contract’s language and structure speak volumes.

His bonuses are tied to SEC Championship appearances, and a buyout that makes a quick separation plausible.

How many wins does Lebby need to cool his seat?

The consensus among SEC insiders is clear that six victories, and likely a bowl berth, are the bare minimum. That's not for him to be sent packing, but Zach Arnett only made it through one season and was better than 2-10.

Lebby came in last year with low expectations and still managed to climb under that bar, taking a 5-7 team and failing to reach a bowl.

Greg McElroy, former Alabama quarterback and now an analyst, put it bluntly that “one outcome will decide whether or not the Bulldogs will go over or under their current win total of 3.5 for 2025.”

A lot of fans have set the bar at a bowl game. Anything less, and the mood in Starkville could turn quickly.

He does need to get more than last year's two wins, but a bowl game may be a stretch with their schedule. That doesn't mean his chair won't get really warm.

Inside the locker room, Lebby is working to instill a new identity.

“Toughness, toughness travels,” he said at Media Days last year. “This is a league that is built on toughness. Always has been, always will be.”

With the 2025 SEC Media Days Kickoff starting July 14-17 in Atlanta, Lebby is banking on a deeper, more dangerous offense and a defense that has reloaded. Athlon Sports predicts the Bulldogs “will be better” this season, citing improved depth and talent across the board.

The challenges are as clear as the expectations.

Mississippi State’s schedulehas matchups against perennial playoff contenders Georgia and Texas, plus the pivotal clash with Tennessee. The Bulldogs catch a break with non-conference games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, but the margin for error is razor-thin.

“This year’s team gets Arizona State, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas. That’s four teams from last year’s College Football Playoff. The easiest SEC schedule, this is not,” wrote College Football News.

For Lebby, the key is building belief, both inside the locker room and among the cowbell-ringing faithful.

“I could not be more proud to represent Mississippi State in Dak Prescott country,” Lebby said, invoking the program’s most beloved former player.

His players echo that sentiment.

“Coach Lebby wants us to compete every snap, and he’s shown us what that looks like,” said quarterback Luke Work after the spring game.

History, of course, is not kind to Bulldogs coaches who fall short.

Mississippi State has never won a national title in football and has only one conference championship, dating back to 1941, before World War II.

Fan frustration simmers just below the surface, as does the desire for a program that does more than just survive in the SEC.

“We have the talent to exceed expectations under Coach Lebby,” wrote one local columnist, but added, “Patience, while admirable, is not infinite.”

Selmon has already shown he won’t hesitate to make a change if the trajectory isn’t right.

The SEC’s coaching carousel never stops spinning, and Lebby is not alone on the hot seat.

everal conference rivals will enter the fall feeling the heat, with pressure mounting on coaches at Arkansas, Auburn, and Texas A&M.

But in Starkville, the calculus is simple. Win six games, preferably with an upset or two, and Lebby likely earns a third year. Fall short, and the Bulldogs could be searching for their fourth head coach in four seasons, although there are a lot of factors that will get figured into that.

For now, Lebby remains focused on the work. That's probably enough to keep him busy.

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