Northern Illinois at Mississippi State: Are the Bulldogs in for an upset?

Once again, it’s Friday and that means it time for a prediction.

Let me start by saying I’m probably going to be in the minority for this one. And I kind of feel bad.

No, this isn’t going to be an upset prediction. After watching some highlights of Northern Illinois at Maryland, I don’t think the Huskies’ secondary can keep up with Mississippi State’s receivers.

But I think this game is going to be a lot closer than some may be predicting. Mississippi State’s answered every challenge it’s been presented and has shown it’s better than its 2024 self.

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So, why am I not more confident in the Bulldogs?

Because the element of “show it on the field” still lingers.

Mississippi State is 3-0, but look at the wins:

Beat a Southern Miss team with more new players and coaches than an expansion team;
Beat then-No. 12 and now unranked Arizona State 24-20; and
Beat Alcorn State, an FSC school, 63-0.

The win against the Sun Devils is the most impressive and in the big picture, a win’s a win.

But the Bulldogs did blow a 17-3 halftime lead, needed a heroic goal line stand and a last-minute touchdown to beat Arizona State.

.@KanyeUdoh6 with his first touchdown as a Sun Devil 🫡

📺 ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/rmPlKYeYKk
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 7, 2025

Who knows what happens if Nic Mitchell doesn’t break through the line on third down?

Or what if Arizona State decides to be smart on its last defensive play and not leave Brenen Thompson one-on-one? Or what if Davon Booth misses his key block on that same play?

Would the Bulldogs be 2-1? It doesn’t really matter, but this does show how close of a line the Bulldogs walked to get to 3-0.

I still think Mississippi State will beat Northern Illinois and my thoughts come down to three questions.

Can Mississippi State stop the run?

Arizona State Sun Devils running back Kanye Udoh (6) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Mississippi State. — Arizona State Sun Devils running back Kanye Udoh (6) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

It’s hard to score points without the ball, which is why I think the Huskies will try and run the ball a lot.

The problem for Mississippi State is that stopping the run is still something it’s struggling to do.

Arizona State came back by running the ball and the Sun Devils made it look easy.

Furthermore, both Southern Miss and Alcorn State were able to find success running the ball (albeit at a much smaller scale than Arizona State).

I expect the Huskies to find success running the ball and to have a larger time of possession than Mississippi State. That’s how this game will stay close.

But I don’t expect the lack of time on offense to be a problem for the Bulldogs because…

Can Northern Illinois keep up with the speedy Bulldog receivers?

Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) reacts after a touchdown during the second quarter. — Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) reacts after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Nope.

Watching the highlights of the Huskies’ game against Maryland showed the Terrapins’ receivers being open often.

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Maryland threw for 254 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per play in a 20-9 win two weeks ago. Mississippi State can do better.

And I know EA College Football 26 has its flaws, but the player ratings are at least based in some reality.

In the game, Northern Illinois has two cornerbacks with a 90 speed rating, the highest on the team. Mississippi State has five receivers with at least a 90 speed rating, including Brenen Thompson with a 96 rating, Anthony Evans III with a 94 and Jordan Mosley with a 93.

In the game, I’d just start sending those three on go routes and throw bombs to whoever beats their defender. Don’t be surprised to see something similar in real life.

And for the final question…

Who wins the turnover battle?

To be more specific, who wins the turnover-on-downs battle?

Northern Illinois had six fourth down conversion attempts against Maryland and converted four of them.

Mississippi State has had four fourth down conversion attempts this season and converted two of them. Also, they’re 3-for-6 stopping opposing teams on fourth down.

Part of the recipe for an upset is extending drives and/or stealing possessions. If the Huskies face a fourth-and-short, expect them to go for it.

But that won’t matter much if Mississippi State’s offense continues its trend of scoring fast from far.