Mississippi State Against the Spread: Analyzing SEC Football Betting Trends

The Bulldogs are mired in a four-game losing streak, but are they covering the number? We take a look at MSU's record against the spread and see how they rank against the rest of the SEC.

Texas Longhorns linebacker David Gbenda (33) tackles Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. (0) in the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Since beating Eastern Kentucky in the opener, Mississippi State has dropped four straight entering this week's bye. It's been a rough stretch for new head coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs, but how has their performance translated in betting circles? And how do those ATS numbers compare to the other 15 schools in the SEC?

While ATS records may seem unimportant, they do provide clear clues to which teams are crushing popular expectations and who has disappointed so far in 2024.

SEC Schools Against the Spread (thru Week 5)

15. LSU

ATS: 1-4 (20%)
Over Record: 2-3 (40%)

15. Texas A&M

ATS: 1-4 (20%)
Over Record: 2-3 (40%)

13. Georgia

ATS: 1-3 (25%)
Over Record: 1-3 (25%)

13. Florida

ATS: 1-3 (25%)
Over Record: 3-1 (75%)

11. Auburn

ATS: 2-3 (40%)
Over Record: 3-2 (60%)

11. Mississippi State

ATS: 2-3 (40%)
Over Record: 3-2 (60%)

Looking for a reliable Bulldog trend in the second half of the season?

The total has gone over in all three MSU home games and under in its two road trips to Arizona State and Texas. The Bulldogs will be back in Starkville Oct. 19 to kick off a three-game homestand with Texas A&M.

When Blake Shapen suffered the shoulder injury today that will require season-ending surgery, true freshman QB Michael Van Buren came in.

He was 7/13 for 100 yards. Here's a look at what he brought to the table this afternoon for #MississippiState: pic.twitter.com/arHWvBL0El

— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) September 22, 2024

10. Missouri

ATS: 2-2 (50%)
Over Record: 1-3 (25%)

9. Oklahoma

ATS: 3-2 (60%)
Over Record: 2-3 (40%)

6. Alabama

ATS: 3-1 (75%)
Over Record: 3-1 (75%)

6. South Carolina

ATS: 3-1 (75%)
Over Record: 2-2 (50%)

6. Vanderbilt

ATS: 3-1 (75%)
Over Record: 4-0 (100%)

Diego did his thing 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/7KTuma10gg

— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 2, 2024

2. Ole Miss

ATS: 4-1 (80%)
Over Record: 1-4 (20%)

2. Texas

ATS: 4-1 (80%)
Over Record: 2-2-1 (50%)

2. Arkansas

ATS: 4-1 (80%)
Over Record: 3-2 (60%)

2. Kentucky

ATS: 4-1 (80%)
Over Record: 1-4 (20%)

1. Tennessee

ATS: 4-0 (100%)
Over Record: 3-1 (75%)

SEC-Big Ten Scheduling Partnership: What It Means for Mississippi State Football

Mississippi State 2024 Basketball Depth Chart: Projections and Key Players