Three reasons why Mississippi State will win Saturday against Arkansas

The Bulldogs will head to Fayetteville as the underdogs, but there are plenty of reasons why they shouldn't be.

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a coach openly admit one opponent is more winnable than another.

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby didn’t when he was asked about his team’s opponent for this week, Arkansas.

“No, not in the least bit,” Lebby said. “We played a football team a couple weeks ago that was the best 2-4 team in the country. We're playing the best 2-6 football team in the country this week.”

That’s the right mindset for a team to have, but it’s clear that Saturday’s game at Arkansas is the Bulldogs’ best chance at winning an SEC game this season.

ICYMI: Three reasons why Arkansas will beat Mississippi State

After Saturday, the Bulldogs’ schedule features matchups against two teams ranked in the top 10 and another in the top 20.

Winning one of those games will be lot harder than getting a win against an Arkansas team with an interim head coach and only two wins this season.

Despite that, the Bulldogs are still the underdogs.

As of Wednesday, Arkansas is a 4.5-point favorite to win and SP+ Projections give the Razorbacks a 56 percent win probability.

Mississippi State will set out to prove those odds wrong and here are three reasons why the bulldogs will do just that.

Bulldogs are ‘pissed’

The Razorbacks are about to play a team that is angry, but in a good way for Mississippi State.

Mississippi State hasn’t won an SEC game in two years and three of their losses this year came in games the Bulldogs and their fans believe they should’ve won.

“I think we've got a pissed off football team,” Lebby said. “A team that isn't hanging their head, is not feeling sorry for themselves. A football team that is ready to go prove that we're a good football team. And that's my charge, because we have a good football team. We got a tough football team.”

The anger isn’t limited to the players and coaches, either. The fan base is upset, too.

“I hate our fan base doesn't have the ability to feel (a win),” Lebby said. “The way they showed up in Davis Wade, our student section, the energy, the passion, it was as good a game day experience as you can have. And I hate that our fan base and our people that are so invested don't get to feel good about winning a big game.”

The Bulldogs are coming to Fayetteville like a rabid dog and will use that anger to beat Arkansas.

Razorbacks’ defense is bad

One of the reasons Arkansas made a coaching change was the play of its defense. One of the first moves Petrino made was to replace several defensive coaches.

The changes have helped some, but is still ranked at the bottom of the SEC in every major statistical category.

Mississippi State should have a field day against the Razorbacks considering what its offense did against a Texas considered one of the best in the nation.

Arkansas has also allowed a lot of big plays on defense. Opposing offenses have five completed passes of at least 40 yards and two more than 50.

Mississippi State leads the SEC in completed passing plays over 40-yards with 15, and ranks 2nd in passes over 50-yards with 6.

The Bulldogs will have their chances to score a lot of points, but will need to avoid self-inflicted wounds along the way.

The X-Factor

Arkansas has it’s x-factor on offense lined up at quarterback. Mississippi State’s is at wide receiver.

Brenen Thompson is the Bulldogs’ leading receiver with 35 catches for 609 yards and six touchdowns. He has nine catches for 20 yards or more, including five touchdowns.

Thompson will get open behind the Arkansas secondary at some point and if those passes are being completed, it’ll be a long day for the Razorbacks.