Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds, How to Watch SEC Tournament Final

The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the SEC Tournament will meet in the final on Sunday afternoon, after the Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 4) upset the Florida Gators on Saturday. They’ll take on the No. 3-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks and star point guard Darius Acuff with a chance to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth.

Now, both Arkansas and Vanderbilt will be in the Big Dance – they’re both top-25 teams – but this win could end up pushing their seeding even higher on Selection Sunday.

This game features two of the best guards in the country in Vandy’s Tyler Tanner and Arkansas’ Acuff, and oddsmakers are actually giving the lower seed the edge in this matchup. Vandy is favored by 2.5 points, even though it lost by 25 to Arkansas earlier this season.

John Calipari’s Razorbacks have played back-to-back close games in the SEC Tournament, beating Oklahoma and Ole Miss by three points apiece. Now, they take a major step up in class against a Vandy team that is loaded with experience at guard between Tanner and Duke Miles.

The Commodores have rolled in the SEC Tournament, beating Tennessee by seven before blowing out Florida by 17 on Saturday.

Can they close out this impressive run with an SEC Tournament title?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Sunday’s marquee matchup.

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Vanderbilt -2.5 (-110)
Arkansas +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Vanderbilt: -142
Arkansas: +120

Total

166.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Bridgestone Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Vanderbilt record: 26-7
Arkansas record: 25-8

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Key Player to Watch

Duke Miles, Guard, Vanderbilt

A lot is going to be made of the Acuff vs. Tanner matchup, but Duke Miles swung Saturday’s game against Florida, and he could end up doing it again on Sunday.

The senior guard is averaging 16.4 points, 3.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game this season while shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3. Miles did not miss a shot in the first half against Florida, scoring 13 points to give the Commodores an early lead.

Now, he takes on a Razorbacks team that has struggled on defense (186th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage) this season. Miles had just five points on 1-of-7 shooting in the first meeting between these teams, so he’ll need to step up on Sunday.

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Arkansas has one of the most impressive offenses in the country, but I can’t look past the team’s defensive issues when it comes to this matchup.

The Razorbacks needed a huge game from Acuff in the quarterfinals to get past Oklahoma, and they went to overtime and nearly lost to Ole Miss on Saturday. Acuff wasn’t nearly as good in that game, but there is a lot of pressure on him – and the rest of this offense – to perform at a high level night in and night out.

Arkansas ranks just 186th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (Vandy is 29th) and 284th in opponent 2-point percentage.

On offense, the Razorbacks are a well-oiled machine, ranking first in turnover rate, 15th in 3-point percentage and 22nd in eFG%. However, Arkansas doesn't usually have a huge advantage from 3, as it is 314th in 3-point rate this season.

On top of that, Vandy ranks 40th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage and 4th in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Commodores have a potent offense – 29th in eFG%, 11th in turnover rate – and I’m not putting too much stock into a bad loss to the Razorbacks much earlier this season.

Right now, Vandy is the better team, and it already upset the best squad in the SEC. I like the Commodores to win outright on Sunday after Arkansas had to battle in overtime against No. 15-seed Ole Miss in the semis.

Pick: Vanderbilt Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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