What Advanced Analytics Say About Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma

ESPN favors Oklahoma on paper while Mississippi State enters with a season projection that deserves much closer examination

Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby participates in the Dawg Walk before a college football game between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. The Egg Bowl game marks the 122nd meeting between the two teams. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The advanced numbers see Saturday as Oklahoma’s game to lose, but not by much. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Sooners a 13.3 rating, 22nd nationally, while Mississippi State sits at 9.1, good for 38th after the shutout at LSU.

Meanwhile, a four-point gap in FPI rating is about the size of home-field advantage, which explains why this one is being treated as close to a coin flip with a slight lean toward the visitors.

Game Information

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Kickoff Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville.
TV Channel: ESPN
Radio: Mississippi State Sports Network
Series Record: LSU leads 75-36-3
Betting: Oklahoma (-4.5), O/u: 44.5 total points (FanDuel)

DISCLAIMER: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call .

Oct 3, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs offensive lineman Jamari Freeman (62) lines up during the third quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

FPI has changed its mind on Mississippi State

Mississippi State looked stronger before the back-to-back losses. The losses to Alabama and LSU, combined with injuries to quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell, have changed the outlook.

The betting market agrees with the computer. Oklahoma opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the Dimers model projects a 25-24 Oklahoma win with a 54.4 percent win probability for the Sooners.

Models react to what they have seen most recently, and what they have seen from the Bulldogs is a team playing without two of its top offensive players. If Taylor is back, those numbers are working off a picture of the Bulldogs that no longer exists.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Florida
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas A&M
11. Kentucky
12. Missouri
13. South Carolina
14. Mississippi State
15. Arkansas
16. Vanderbilt

The numbers tell a tale of two units

Oct 17, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Kentucky Wildcats defensive lineman Mi'quise Humphrey-Grace (90) and Kentucky Wildcats linebacker Alex Afari Jr. (9) tackle Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) during the second half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The scoring averages explain the matchup better than any rating. Mississippi State scores 32.5 points per game and allows 28.5, while Oklahoma scores 21.3 and allows only 18.2. The Bulldogs have topped 30 points in four of six games, and Oklahoma’s defense has allowed more than 21 points only twice, against Georgia and Texas.

Mississippi State’s best unit is going up against Oklahoma’s best unit, and the weaker sides on both teams will decide it. Oklahoma’s offense has scored 14 or fewer four times, and Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer threw three interceptions in the second half against Kentucky alone.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables admitted after that loss how close the line is for his team.

"Appreciate the fight of our guys. A heck of a ball game. Hats off to Kentucky and Coach Stein. They did a great job. That’s kind of how they’ve been winning this year. The margins are really small. They made the plays when they needed to, and we weren’t able to get it done as a staff or as a team.” Venables said in his postgame press conference.

FPI still likes Mississippi State’s season

Oklahoma's John Mateer looks to throw the ball in the first half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Kentucky Wildcats at Gaylord Family — Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct., 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Here is the part Mississippi State fans should hold onto. Even after the slide, FPI projects the Bulldogs to finish 7-5, putting them on course for six wins and bowl eligibility.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, projects to finish 6-6, ranked 10th in the SEC by FPI compared to Mississippi State’s 14th. 

We can all see that the Sooners have the better rating, but they also have the tougher path, with Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri still ahead.

However, for Mississippi State, the analytics frame Saturday as a chance to beat a team the computers rate higher. A win would push the Bulldogs to 5-2 and give the models a reason to rethink everything they have learned over the last two weekends.

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