What the Advanced Analytics Say About Mississippi State vs. Auburn

ESPN's model and sportsbooks disagree on Auburn's trip to Starkville, with efficiency and turnovers shaping a close matchup

Sep 5, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN's Football Power Index and the sportsbooks are staring at the same game in Starkville and coming away with different answers.

As of Monday, the FPI gave the Mississippi State Bulldogs a 51% chance to beat Auburn on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium, a coin flip with a slight lean toward the home team. However, the betting market sees it the other way, as Auburn opened as a 3.5-point favorite and sits at 2.5 points with a total of 50.5.

Oct 3, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby talks to players before the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The computer gives Jeff Lebby the edge

Interestingly, ESPN's model stands mostly alone in siding with Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby's team. Dimers gives Auburn a 58% chance and projects a 27-23 Tigers win, while AccuScore's current projections land at about 54% for Auburn.

The FPI also projects Auburn to finish 6-6, which bakes in a loss somewhere down the stretch. With Samford and Alabama left after Saturday, the model essentially treats Starkville as the swing game of Auburn's November.

Byrum Brown's offense trails in the efficiency column

Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown carries a heavy load, yet the Tigers' offense ranks 96th nationally at 24.3 points per game, while Mississippi State sits 84th at 26.2. Per play, the gap widens, as the Bulldogs average 5.9 yards to Auburn's 5.2.

Mississippi State also throws for 247.3 yards per game, fifth in the SEC, while Auburn ranks 14th at 211.4. The Tigers claw some of it back on third down, converting 42.2% to the Bulldogs' 39.7%, and neither offense holds the ball for long, as both rank in the bottom three of the league in time of possession.

WIN $2KIN TICKETS

WIN $2KIN TICKETS

GET READY TO COMPETE

Pick your champion (you can change it later). We’ll email you when brackets open.

• Georgia
• Utah
• Alabama
• UCLA
• Notre Dame
• Texas
• Miami (FL)
• Tennessee
• Indiana
• BYU
• Kentucky
• Texas Tech

PREREGISTER TO PLAY

No purchase necessary. 50 U.S./D.C. 18+. Entry opens 3PM ET Dec 6, 2026 and closes 8PM ET Dec 18, 2026. Void where prohibited.See Official Rules for complete details. The College Football Playoff (CFP) is not a sponsor or administrator of this contest.

Oct 31, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Alex Golesh looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Defensively, neither side inspires much confidence. Mississippi State allows 27.8 points per game, which ranks 100th, while Auburn gives up 26.3 to rank 84th. All things considered, the efficiency numbers explain why the FPI refuses to write off a team riding a five-game losing streak.

Alex Golesh holds the turnover card

Where Auburn coach Alex Golesh's team separates itself is the turnover column. The Tigers have forced 14 takeaways and sit at plus-3 in turnover margin, while Mississippi State has managed eight takeaways and sits at minus-4.

The stakes show up in the bowl projections, too. Auburn needs only one more win to reach a bowl, while Mississippi State still needs two in its final three games. A win Saturday would push the Bulldogs within one victory of eligibility with FCS Tennessee Tech up next. Even a slight statistical edge can disappear with one badly timed turnover, which is why both models and betting prices deserve context. These percentages describe possibilities rather than promises, and even a small gap between teams can change quickly once the game begins.

Sep 3, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; The scoreboard announces a lighting delay during the first quarter of the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Memphis Tigers at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

Lebby knows where the danger lies, and he pointed to it Monday.

"The two things that jump out [are] how they've taken the ball away and the negative plays they've created," Lebby said.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sign up to our free Mississippi State on SI newsletter for daily updates on all things Bulldogs.