Will Mississippi State finally gets its SEC breakthrough at Arkansas?

Mississippi State and Arkansas both face must-win stakes Saturday, but the Bulldogs have more to lose as they chase their first SEC win in two years.

Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive linemen Jamil Burroughs (88) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The game taking place in the northwest corner of Arkansas on Saturday can be considered a “must win” game for both sides.

If Arkansas interim coach Bobby Petrino hopes to be promoted to the position full-time, he needs to win at least one SEC game and a loss eliminates the Razorbacks from becoming bowl-eligible.

However, those reasons pale in comparison to the reasons why it’s a must win game for Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs haven’t won an SEC game in nearly two years (0-16 since their last win) and have lost four-straight games after a 4-0 start.

A month ago it seemed like the Bulldogs were a lock for a bowl game. But then they lost to Tennessee in overtime, got blown out by Texas A&M, lost to Florida on a game-ending interception while in field goal range and lost to Texas in overtime after leading by 17 points in the fourth quarter.

That’s led to a lot of upset and angry people in Starkville.

“We've got a pissed off football team,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who is still looking for his first conference win at any level of football as a head coach, said on Monday. “(This team) isn't hanging their head and is not feeling sorry for themselves. This is a football team that is ready to go prove that we're a good football team.”

But the anger is limited to the program. The fanbase is nearing its boiling point, calling for a change at quarterback and a change at head coach.

It’s still highly unlikely that second one will happen even if the Bulldogs go 0-8 in SEC play again.

But a loss to Arkansas would see those calls grow a lot louder and this Mississippi State team will lose most of the fan support it’s had this season.

And don’t kid yourself. The fan support has been a huge factor and was a large reason why the Bulldogs beat then-No. 12 Arizona State (and led to a massive campaign reminding fans to “ring responsibly”).

For all of those reasons – plus the fact Arkansas is the only unranked team left on Mississippi State’s schedule and is two wins shy of bowl eligibility – Saturday is a must win game for the Bulldogs.

But will they?

The Prediction

Was Mississippi State’s run defense last week that held Texas to 72 rushing yards and had 12 tackles for a loss a sign it’s figured out how to stop the run or was it a one-game fluke?

The answer to that is important because Arkansas is averaging more than 200 rushing yards a game and ranks second in the SEC and 22nd in the nation.

I need to see more than one game to believe Mississippi State can stop a rushing attack. Two reasons: A) Texas’s offensive line isn’t as good as it was a year ago and B) it’s hard to comeback from a 17-point deficit running the ball.

But the Razorbacks’ defense is worse at stopping the run (last in the SEC) and a lot worse at stopping passing attacks (14th in the SEC) than the Bulldogs (8th in the SEC).

There’s also the biggest game-changing, x-factor: Brenen Thompson.

No defense has avoided seeing Thompson run past them for a wide open touchdown opportunity (taking advantage of those opportunities is another thing) and Arkansas won’t be any different.

The only thing keeping this prediction from being a high-scoring one is the weather forecast, but I think the Bulldogs understand the importance of winning this game and will do that.

Mississippi State 28, Arkansas 24