Game Prediction: #12 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama

There are two huge SEC matchups this weekend, and the battle between the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) and the #12 Ole Miss Rebels (3-0). Ole Miss seems to be a trendy pick for the upset, but going into Tuscaloosa and knocking off the Tide is a monumental task.

Alabama isn't as explosive as it was a season ago but its defense is much better. The Rebels have been a juggernaut offensively thus far, but they haven't faced a defense in the same universe as Alabama. Will Lane Kiffin be able to dial up enough magic to become the first former Nick Saban assistant to beat the legendary coach? We'll see.

Irish Breakdown is ready to make predictions for the game.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Ole Miss 48, Alabama 41

I'm going with the upset here for a number of reasons. Alabama is really good this season, but this isn't the same Crimson Tide squad that we've seen in recent seasons. Alabama's defense struggled more than I thought it would against Florida, and the Gators offense isn't close to what Ole Miss will bring to the table.

Quarterback Matt Corral has put up monster numbers so far and he is getting much of the attention, but it's Ole Miss's ability to run the ball that makes this offense so special. The question is will the Ole Miss run game look more like it did against Louisville (188 yards, 4.6 YPC) or like it did against Austin Peay and Tulane (354.0 YPG, 6.8 YPC)? Ole Miss will need its run game to get going to take the pressure off Corral.

Alabama's run game has sputtered for much of the season but is coming off its best performance of the season (211 yards vs. Southern Miss). The same story is true for the Tide, and that is that the run game has to be good enough to take pressure off Bryce Young, whose numbers are outstanding but the redshirt freshman will be tested this weekend well beyond what he's seen thus far.

At the end of the day I think Ole Miss's balance on offense will carry the day, and as long as Corral doesn't have one of those "what is he doing" games I think the Rebels outscore the Tide.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Alabama 42, Ole Miss 31

So Lane Kiffin is going to take yet another shot at Nick Saban the Tide. This time Kiffin has a pretty high powered offense to go with him. The bigger question will be on defense for the Rebels. Can they slow up this attack led by Bryce Young? They may be able to trip up the young signal called but they won’t stop him. I think it will be tighter early but in the end the Tide rolls over their former play caller.

GRANT DELVECCHIO, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Alabama 49, Ole Miss 35

Florida gave Alabama a run for its money two weeks ago, and I expect Ole Miss to do the same this weekend. The Rebels are the only team in the country ranked in the top 15 in both rushing and passing offense, and quarterback Matt Corral is currently one of the Heisman favorites with 14 total touchdowns in just three games played. The Crimson Tide will have to keep Corral and the Ole Miss offense off the field as much as possible if they are to win this game. In the end, Ole Miss has yet to be tested against a strong team this season and the bye week won't work in the Rebels favor.

Though Ole miss is improved from last season's abysmal defense, I still don't think they can shut down Alabama and Bryce Young. Saban will get the edge over his former OC Lane Kiffin, but there is massive upset potential in this game.

ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Alabama 40

In a game that has become must-see TV in past years, expect more offensive fireworks between Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide and the Ole Miss Rebels, an apt nickname for a team coached by Lane Kiffin. You can bet that Kiffin will have his team ready to play, and I expect Ole Miss to go shot for shot with Alabama. The difference in this year’s Ole Miss team is that the defense – which gave up 63 points to Alabama in 2020 and finished the year ranked last in the SEC – has improved to the middle-of-the-pack – despite playing two pretty good offenses in Louisville and Tulane.

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is averaging 335 passing YPG while completing 69% of passes and has plenty of weapons around him. Mississippi isn’t just a passing team either - the Rebels have a deep backfield, which ranks second in the SEC in rushing at 298.7 YPG and has 4 players who have run for over 100 yards in only 3 games, including Corral, who has 5 rushing TDs as well.

The Tide will start fast, but if Mississippi can roll with that initial punch, avoid falling behind by too many points, and establish the run, they’ll be able to lean on an Alabama defense that ranks 8th in the SEC against the run, just like Florida did. When Alabama is forced to commit extra bodies to the box, Corral will make plays over the top. I feel crazy writing this, but this year’s Ole Miss team is a bad matchup for Alabama, will have the best player on the field, and will win a close game in Tuscaloosa where the Tide hardly ever lose.

SHAUN DAVIS, ESPN CHICAGO

Prediction: Alabama 41, Ole Miss 34

Ole Miss has incrementally become an incredibly explosive offense under Lane Kiffin’s watchful eye, and posted 43, 54, and 61 respectively in their first three contests. Matt Corral spearheads the Rebel offense and will pose multiple issues for the Crimson Tide defense that has some holes to fill in the rush defense. Seems like a recipe for disaster for Nick Saban and multi-look scheme, but you never know what the old ball coach could have up his sleeve.

Alabama and Bryce Young seemed unstoppable until the second half in Gainesville, where the Gators changed the flow of the game with physicality on both sides of the ball. Rebel running backs, Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy, were successful against the Crimson Tide defense last year as they rushed for 248 yards. They may have a shot at eclipsing that mark if Nick Saban doesn’t find some answers for his front seven.

RYAN ROBERTS, RISENDRAFT

Prediction: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 31

Alabama wasn't able to shut the door on Florida, leading to some overreactions, despite the victory. They leave little doubt here. Lane Kiffin's offense is able to put some points up but quarterback Matt Corral is forced into two turnovers. Ultimately, the Rebel defense isn't good enough to keep pace.

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