Cover Three: Week 9 Best College Football Bets

After a couple of down weekends the college football slate for week nine is absolutely loaded! There are three that are most interesting from a betting standpoint.

Week 9 Best Bets
Last week - 3-1

#11 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

Money Line: ND -175, UNC +150
Against the Spread: ND -3.5, UNC +3.5
O/U: 62.5

No. 11 Notre Dame is fresh off their most complete game on the season as they welcome the Tar Heels into Notre Dame Stadium. Meanwhile, Mack Brown and Sam Howell are looking for an opportunity to launch a second half that will match preseason expectations. The game will be the start of a demanding four game stretch including the Irish, Wake Forest, Pitt and NC State. Notre Dame will be without star safety Kyle Hamilton after he sustained a knee injury against USC. This isn’t the ideal matchup for the defense to have their best pass defender out of the lineup facing Sam Howell and his talented pass catchers. That’s where Isaiah Foskey and the rest of the Irish defensive line will impact the game, as putting pressure on Sam Howell becomes paramount. Eight different defenders have recorded an interception for the Irish defense, and that depth and versatility should come in handy on Saturday night. The Irish offense may have found a comfort zone for quarterback Jack Coan as they featured an up-tempo approach that helped an ailing offensive line and running game. Sam Howell has thrown for less than 225 yards in his last two outings with two touchdowns and one interception in each contest. With the loss of considerable talent to the NFL, Howell has run the ball more to contribute to the success of the Tar Heels offense.

Trends: Notre Dame is 19-1 over 20 all-time games against UNC. The road team is 5-0 ATS over the last games in this matchup.

Best Bet: Notre Dame -3.5

#6 Michigan State at #8 Michigan

ML: Michigan –190, Michigan State +160
ATS: Michigan -4, Michigan State +4
O/U: 50.5

It’s been a few years since these arch-rivals have faced each other with this much at stake. They both enter the matchup ranked in the top 10, and contenders for a big ten conference championship and college football playoff berth. This will be the fifth time that both teams will be ranked in the top 10, and I expect this game to live up to the billing. Michigan has run the ball 65.4% of it’s offensive snaps which ranks as the 6th highest rushing rate in the country, and they’ve been successful boasting the 12 highest rushing success rate in the country. The Spartan defense is only 79th nationally against the run, and their chances of winning on Saturday will lie heavily on their defensive front seven’s ability to put Cade McNamara and the Wolverines in third and long. Michigan State is no longer 3 yards and a cloud of dust offensively. They rank 18th in explosive play rate and are tied for the lead nationally in plays of 60 yards or more with seven. Kenneth Walker III has been the biggest reason why with 10 rushes of at least 20 yards. He might find it a little more difficult to create those big plays facing a Wolverine defense that has been stellar against the run and the pass this season.

Trends: MSU has been the underdog in all six meetings since Harbaugh took over at Michigan. MSU is 2-2 S/U and 4-2 ATS in those games. Michigan has won the last two meetings at Spartan Stadium and they are 6-1 ATS this season.

Best Bet: MSU +4

#1 Georgia vs. Florida

ML: Georgia -750, Florida +490
ATS: Georgia -14.5, Florida +14.5
O/U: 50.5

This matchup will be fun all over as both teams invade Jacksonville for their annual “Biggest Cocktail Party”. With a win, Georgia will more than likely be the No. 1 ranked team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. The winner of this game has represented the SEC East in the SEC championship game the last six seasons, with each team going on 3 occasions. Jordan Davis has been the most dominant player in college football this season, leading a dominant Bulldog defense that allows 2.2 yards per carry and 12 first downs per game. The Gators have been inefficient in the passing game, and their ability to run the ball with both of their quarterbacks has been the foundation of offensive success. Quarterback JT Daniels may return on Saturday, but the Bulldog offense has been steady and punishing with Stetson Bennett handing the ball off to Zamir White and James Cook for 5.4 yards per carry. I look at the low O/U and two touchdown spread and that points to a game that’s closer than most experts think, but Georgia’s defense is as good as advertised, and one has to question if Florida has enough versatility to threaten the Bulldogs.

Trends: UGA is a double-digit favorite for the seventh consecutive game. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS this season and the under has hit in the last three games. Florida covered as a 14-point underdog against Alabama on Sept. 18. Kirby Smart is 3-2 S/U vs. Florida.

Best Bet: Georgia -14.5

Lock & Key Pick: Ohio State -18.5 vs Penn St.

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Notre Dame 2023 Class Big Board

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