Irish Breakdown

ESPN Computer Model Projects Winner for Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl

Notre Dame and Georgia are set to meet for the fourth time all-time in the 2025 Sugar Bowl
Nick Shepkowski|
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates a touchdown scored during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend.
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates a touchdown scored during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Notre Dame Fighting IrishGeorgia Bulldogs

Notre Dame disposed of Indiana in the opening round of the College Football Playoff and advanced to the Sugar Bowl where it will meet second-seeded Georgia (11-2).

The Irish will meet Georgia for the fourth time in program history (0-3 all-time vs. Georgia), in what will be Notre Dame's sixth trip all-time to the Sugar Bowl (3-2 all-time).

ESPN updated its Football Power Index numbers after Notre Dame's impressive win over Indiana on Saturday and ran its probability chart for the rest of the playoff.

Notre Dame, who FPI ranks as the nation's second best team, is given a slight edge over Georgia according to ESPN FPI.

ESPN FPI Odds for Sugar Bowl:

Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 56.1%
Georgia Chances of Victory: 43.9%

ESPN FPI National Championship Odds

Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price plows ahead against Indian
Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Rolijah Hardy (21) and linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) tackle Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jadarian Price (24) during the second half of a game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN FPI updated its national championship odds following Notre Dame's defeat of Indiana. The Irish were given the nation's second best chances of winning it all entering Saturday.

11. Arizona State 1.2%
10. Clemson 1.4%
9. Boise State 1.4%
8. SMU 1.9%
7. Tennessee 2.9%
6. Penn State 6.8%
5. Oregon 7.8%
4. Ohio State 9.8%
3. Georgia 12.0%
2. Notre Dame 18.1%
1. Texas 19.7%

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Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. Started covering Chicago sports teams for WSCR the Score, and over the years worked with CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports as a contributor before running the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.

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