Notre Dame's Playoff Chances Jumped Way Up
Notre Dame's early October loss to Cincinnati seemed to knock the Fighting Irish out of contention for a College Football Playoff berth, but this has been one of the wildest seasons that I can remember in a very long time, and the Irish are once again in serious contention for a shot to play for a championship.
Notre Dame has won five straight games since dropping that home game to the Bearcats, and the Irish are currently playing their best football of the season. No game was more convincing than its 55-0 victory over Georgia Tech yesterday, which has played a role in Notre Dame building a legitimate playoff resume.
Notre Dame has won its last five games by an average margin of 26.8 points. No, the Yellow Jackets aren't very good, but the Irish did to them what an elite, playoff caliber team is supposed to do to a team that isn't very good.
That October loss means that Notre Dame isn't in control of its own destiny, and the Irish need help. Fortunately for Brian Kelly and his squad they have received plenty of help in the last three weeks.
Notre Dame ranked 10th in the first College Football Playoff rankings, and in each week since that ranking came out at least one opponent ranked ahead of the Irish lost that following weekend, and twice two teams ahead of Notre Dame lost.
In week one, North Carolina beat #9 Wake Forest by a 58-55 score a week after the Irish beat the Tar Heels. Purdue also beat #3 Michigan State by a 40-29 score.
Notre Dame jumped ahead of Wake Forest and ranked 9th in the second CFB Playoff rankings. That weekend #8 Oklahoma lost 27-14 to Baylor.
Notre Dame moved up one more spot to 8th in the latest CFB Rankings. That was followed by their 55-0 victory and was coupled by #7 Michigan State losing again, this time 56-7 to #4 Ohio State. The 3rd-ranked Oregon Ducks also lost for the second time this season, dropping a 38-7 game at #23 Utah.
Barring #9 Oklahoma State leaping the Irish on Tuesday night, which I don't see happening, the Irish are all but certain to jump up to 6th in the next rankings release. Next Saturday, Ohio State and Michigan - which I expect to be ranked #3 and #5 in the next rankings - will face off in Ann Arbor. The following weekend is the SEC Championship, which will pit undefeated and #1 ranked Georgia against #2 Alabama, who has one loss.
The chaos that has happened the last three weekends has opened up a very clear path for Notre Dame, who need to handle their business next Saturday night against a struggling Stanford (3-8) squad.
PLAYOFF PATH
As I stated, I expect Notre Dame to jump up to #6 in the next rankings.
The loser of the Ohio State vs. Michigan game next weekend will fall behind the Irish. Both teams will be ranked of the Irish on Tuesday night.
Oklahoma State hosts Oklahoma for the Bedlam series this weekend. The Sooners aren't really a threat to Notre Dame but Oklahoma State is. A loss by the Cowboys would give Notre Dame some breathing room in regards to looking over their shoulder.
Cincinnati plays at 7-4 East Carolina on Friday afternoon. A week later the Bearcats face off against #24 Houston (10-1), who beat Memphis this pas Friday. A loss by the Bearcats likely allows the Irish to leap them despite their victory over Notre Dame back on Oct. 2.
#1 Georgia hosts Georgia Tech (3-8) this weekend and #2 Alabama travels to Auburn (6-5) for the Iron Bowl. The two teams will face off the following weekend in the SEC Championship. Assuming both hold serve this weekend this will be a game that is very, very important for Notre Dame, whose fans should pull hard for the Bulldogs.
The reason the path for Notre Dame looks so good right now is that there are so many different options that can lead to them getting into the playoff. Notre Dame is not in position where it needs a straight flush for a spot to open up.
If the results from the last three weekends, and most of the season for that matter, are any indication a win over Stanford will be the final piece Notre Dame needs to get into its third playoff appearance in the last four years.
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