Oklahoma Eyes Offensive Surge in 2026 Akin to Fellow SEC Counterparts of Recent Years

Ben Arbuckle's and John Mateer's first season at the University of Oklahoma ended with mixed reviews. The foundation for a stable offense seemed to be implemented in 2025, yet October through November brought an offensive malaise to the program that reeked too much of the 2024 offense.

There's no other option — Oklahoma must make a significant leap on offense if they expect to build off a successful rebound season.

While it's unclear who the Sooners will be able to rely on (the transfer portal window opens on Jan. 2 and closes on Jan. 16), the assumed belief is that Mateer will return for his second year with the program along with a now-experienced offensive line.

Whatever the cast of characters in Arbuckle's offense in 2026, several SEC offenses from previous seasons provide a useful template for projecting Oklahoma’s hopeful improvement from their ESPN SP+ 50th-rated offense.

Oklahoma Sooners, John Mateer, Isaiah Sategna, Carson Kent, Derek Simmons — Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer celebrates with Isaiah Sategna, Carson Kent and Derek Simmons after scoring a touchdown against Alabama in the CFP. | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

When looking over offenses who made significant jumps from 2024 to 2025, a common thread is returning experience at the quarterback position. Unless a surprise happens, Oklahoma will have that box — perhaps the most critical box — checked.

Other factors like stability on the coaching staff, successful transfer portal hauls and schedule luck played roles in some teams having more capable offenses. For the Sooners, Arbuckle will be back, but the transfer portal haul's impact and schedule luck won't be known until games are played in 2026.

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For now, other team's examples serve as evidence that improvement can come for Oklahoma.

In 2024, Vanderbilt demanded the attention of the college football world for beating Alabama for the first time since 1984. Quarterback Diego Pavia, a transfer from New Mexico State, made play after play to down the Crimson Tide.

But Vanderbilt finished 2024 with a 7-6 record — not bad for the Commodores. Their offense was also rather pedestrian from a statistical standpoint. They finished the year with an ESPN SP+ rating of 61. Pavia, who every college football fan knew by name by season's end, only completed 59% of his passes and accumulated 28 total touchdowns to four turnovers.

Pavia's individual numbers were solid but they didn't translate to much offensive or team success overall. In fairness, there wasn't much else to work with in Clark Lea's fourth season at Vanderbilt.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt Commodores — Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

2025 saw a jump in offense for Vanderbilt that the Sooners would salivate over.

The Commodores saw their SP+ rating on offense catapult from 61 to fourth in the nation in 2025. Pavia's numbers jumped into the Heisman Trophy realm with a 71% completion percentage and a 27-8 TD/INT ratio — with nine rushing scores.

Other SEC schools like Arkansas and Texas A&M saw huge jumps from 2024 to 2025.

Razorback quarterback Taylen Green did not light up the world in his first year in the SEC after transferring from Boise State. His 60% completion percentage coupled with a lackluster 15-9 TD/INT ratio mirrors Mateer's 2025 output. Overall, Arkansas's offensive SP+ rating landed at 40 after 2024.

Green's numbers slightly improved in 2025, helping the Razorbacks jump to a fringe-top 15 SP+ rating on offense. Arkansas' problems far outweighed their offensive capability, resulting in a poor season.

Taylen Green, Arkansas Razorback — Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Aggies, led by quarterback Marcel Reed, benefited greatly from successful transfer portal additions following 2024. Texas A&M's solid 21st offensive rating per SP+ in 2024 vaulted to 12th thanks in large part to NFL-bound wide receiver K.C. Concepcion and the equally talented Mario Craver.

Between Arkansas and Texas A&M's 2024-2025 offensive improvement, Razorback quarterback Green's history in the Mountain West coupled with his two years in the SEC can find some Mateer comparisons. Mateer struggled to adapt from his level of competition at Washington State in year one with the Sooners much like Green has in his career.

But Mateer stands to have more talent around him and a better defense than what Green had at Arkansas. Like Mateer, Green is talented, but is weighed down by a poor team overall.

Texas A&M provides the blueprint for aiding an Oklahoma offensive surge in 2026. Concepcion and Craver were highly sought after players, and they chose the Aggies in large part due to quarterback stability with Reed's experience and a clear plug-and-play situation.

Oklahoma Sooners, Jim Nagy — Oklahoma general manager Jim Nagy | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

That is where Jim Nagy and the Sooner front office comes in. If they can market Mateer's (assumed) return, they may be able to get into the ear of this offseason's Concepcion or Craver. Last year, Nagy arrived late to the transfer portal party last offseason and there was much more doubt surrounding the Oklahoma program — especially on offense — to attract top-tier skill talent.

With a year under their belt and a clearer vision of what is needed, the Sooners front office could be better positioned to be movers and shakers for immediate impact players on offense. Doing so could lead to their desired offensive improvement, mirroring the quick fixes that elevated some league counterparts.