Predicting Every Score on Oklahoma State’s 2026 Football Schedule
In this story:
Oklahoma State fans know why Eric Morris is the Cowboys’ new head coach in 2026.
In summary:
A 1-11 record last year;
A 4-20 record the last two years;
An 18-game Big 12 losing streak;
The dismissal of Mike Gundy.
Morris is engaging in one of the biggest turnaround jobs in recent memory, with nearly 90 new transfers — nearly 20 of which followed him from North Texas — and only a handful of holdovers.
The Cowboys are trendy team nationally. The players will decide whether they can meet or exceed expectations.
Here are my predictions for each game this season, including a final score, the rationale and a final record.
Game 1: Oklahoma State 38, Tulsa 21
There are only a few players left that remember the pain of last year’s loss in Stillwater, the first time the Golden Hurricane won there since the 1950s. But Tulsa only won four games last season and while they should be better, these Cowboys are much more talented than a year ago and Morris will find the right buttons to push on opening day.
Game 2: Oregon 44, Oklahoma State 34
A tough game to predict because while the Cowboys are more talented and get the Ducks at home, most of last year’s NFL talent that had eligibility remaining stayed because they felt they had “unfinished business.” That said, this should be a far more competitive game than a year ago. Just about anything would be better than a year ago.
Game 3: Oklahoma State 67, Murray State 10
The Cowboys and the Racers have never met in football. The Racers, who play in FCS, won just one game last year. Oklahoma State beat its FCS opponent a year ago, Tennessee-Martin, 27-7. That was indicative of last year’s talent. These Cowboys should put Murray State away early.
Game 4: Oklahoma State 31, West Virginia 27
Both Morris and WVU coach Rich Rodriguez want to play fast so the score could be much higher than this. But the continuity Oklahoma State has at quarterback with Drew Mestemaker and the OSU staff should win out as the Mountaineers may not know their starting quarterback until late in the fall. It’s at Morgantown. Expect it to be close.
Game 5: Oklahoma State 38, UCF 28
Oklahoma State lost this matchup last year, 17-14, in Orlando. Both teams have new quarterbacks and James Madison transfer Alonzo Barrett III should be a huge upgrade for UCF. The key player could be running back Caleb Hawkins. While the Cowboys love to play at pace Hawkins has a unique ability to control the game with his legs.
Game 6: Houston 31, Oklahoma State 21
Oklahoma State’s first significant Big 12 test will come on the road at Houston against a Cougars team that won 10 games a season ago and returns key starters on both sides of the football. The Cougars have consistency at quarterback (Conner Weigman), wide receiver (Amare Thomas) and all along at their defense. Plus, Oregon transfer Makhi Hughes should be a difference maker for Houston.
Game 7: Oklahoma State 41, Colorado 27
I think the Buffaloes will be better than people are giving them credit for. But the Cowboys are more talented, especially on the offensive side. The run-pass mix in this game will lead to one of OSU’s highest times of possession of the season. The Cowboys defense should be showing some real flashes by this point too.
Game 8: Oklahoma State 28, Iowa State 27
Both teams have new head coach — Morris at OSU and Jimmy Rogers at Iowa State. Both brought in a boat load of transfers. Both are installing new schemes and mindsets. Ames is a tough place to play and on Halloween strange things happen. The Cowboys struggle but win the game on a last-minute touchdown drive led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
Game 9: Oklahoma State 33, Kansas State 30
The games are going to start getting closer as the Cowboys will have a shot at reaching the Big 12 Championship game by this point in the season. This could be one of the best quarterback battles of the season between OSU’s Drew Mestemaker and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. I think a big OSU defensive play wins it, though.
Game 10: Texas Tech 47, Oklahoma State 44
This sets up as an offensive showdown. With just one Big 12 loss the Cowboys are in prime position to make their Big 12 title game dreams a reality. The Red Raiders will have taken abuse all season and risen above it. The game turns on a last-second field goal by Texas Tech which prevents a world-class field storming at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Game 11: Arizona State 31, Oklahoma State 20
The classic let-down game after a big loss to Texas Tech. The Cowboys come out flat, make uncharacteristic mistakes and the Sun Devils grab an early lead and nurse it to the finish line. ASU is coming into the season with a nearly-new team. Head coach Kenny Dillingham will have them looking right by this point.
Game 12: Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 21
It’s Thanksgiving weekend and given all the activities surrounding the holiday, the home team tends to have the better outcome. After losing two weeks in a row the Cowboys will be clinging to wild College Football Playoff at-large scenarios that won’t come true. But OSU will be up for this one. A big game by Drew Mestemaker puts the game away.
Final Record Prediction: 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
Follow PostinsPostcard