Oregon Ducks NCAA Tournament Projection May Surprise Some

After a frustrating season, can the Oregon Ducks make it back to the NCAA Tournament?

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman talks with forward Dezdrick Lindsay (4) against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Fresh off one of their most frustrating seasons in program history, the Oregon Ducks, with several transfer portal additions, are looking to have a comeback year and earn a spot in an expanded 76-team NCAA Tournament. 

Last season was the first time the Ducks had a losing record under coach Dana Altman, finishing 12-20 overall and going 5-15 in Big Ten play. While some Ducks fans don’t see things getting any better next year, an early bracketology projection for the 2026-27 season could give Oregon hope. 

Oregon's Early NCAA Tournament Projection

Mar 10, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

According to the latest CBS Sports bracketology projections, the Ducks are projected to be in the last four in and the No. 11 seed in the East Region. The other three teams in the last four include the Baylor Bears, Virginia Tech Hokies, and San Diego State Aztecs. 

Similar to Oregon, none of those three teams made the tournament this past season. The Ducks are projected to play the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first four matchup, with the winner facing the Ohio State Buckeyes in the first round.

While this is just a projection, the Ducks have to prove they have what it takes to bounce back from last season's struggles, and they have several transfer commits that can help them return to the tournament.

Oregon's Transfer Portal Additions Can Help Ducks Get Back On Track

Jan 10, 2026; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Dwayne Aristode (2) looks on during the game between the Horned Frogs and the Wildcats at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Following the key offseason departures of star center Nate Bittle, guard Jackson Shelstad, and forward Kwame Evans Jr., the Ducks bring in a total of eight incoming transfer commits. Of the eight transfer players that the Ducks bring in next season, one player to watch is Arizona forward Dwayne Aristode. 

While Aristode only averaged 3.8 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 0.7 assists last season for the Wildcats, the championship experience that he brings with him from one of college basketball's best teams could be beneficial for a struggling Ducks squad.  

Feb 17, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Boston College Eagles guard Fred Payne (5) reacts to a foul call during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

In terms of scoring, former Boston College guard Fred Payne and Boise State forward Andrew Meadow could have an impact for the Ducks. Last season, for a struggling Boston College team, Payne led the Eagles in scoring, averaging 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. 

Joining Payne in the Ducks' backcourt is Kentucky transfer guard Jasper Johnson. Following a freshman year in which Johnson averaged 4.9 points, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 rebounds per game, Johnson looks to have a breakout season with the Ducks.  

Nov 24, 2023; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Boise State Broncos forward Andrew Meadow (13) drives to the hoop past Virginia Commonwealth Rams forward Toibu Lawal (10) in the second half during the ESPN Events Invitational Consolation game 2 at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Meadow is another talented scorer for the Broncos who could help the Ducks' frontcourt and perimeter defense next season. Last season with the Broncos, Meadow averaged 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game, while shooting 51.0 percent from the field.

Oregon's transfer portal class was ranked No. 35 nationally per 247Sports, and sixth in the Big Ten behind the Indiana Hoosiers (No. 6), Michigan Wolverines (No. 12), USC Trojans (No. 20), Maryland Terrapins (No. 27), and UCLA Bruins (No. 28).

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