Early Score Prediction For Oregon vs. Penn State Might Surprise Some

Will the No. 6 Oregon Ducks upset the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions?

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his predictions for week 5 of the college football season, and according to Connelly's SP+, Oregon is projected to beat Penn State on Saturday.

According to the SP+, a predictive model that rates every team in the country, Oregon is favored by less than half of a point. Connelly's prediction disagrees with the current betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, which has Penn State favored by 3.5 points.

Sep 13, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) drops back in the pocket while looking to throw a pass during the second quarter against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

While predicting Oregon to win outright as underdogs in a hostile environment like the Penn State White Out is a surprising pick, no one is surprised to see that analytics project the Ducks and Nittany Lions to be locked in close game.

Oregon, Penn State Preview

In the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 in a back-and-forth affair. The Nittany Lions had the ball with under two minutes remaining in the game, but Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was intercepted by former Ducks defensive back Nikko Reed, sealing the victory for Oregon.

Will the 2025 rematch be another high-scoring affair? Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has looked sharp through for games, but he and Oregon's offensive line has yet to face a defensive front like Penn State's.

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Meanwhile, the Ducks defense features a number of new faces making early impacts.

Oregon Ducks defensive back Ify Obidegwu (7) celebrates after breaking up a pass during the first half against Montana Stat — Aug 30, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks defensive back Ify Obidegwu (7) celebrates after breaking up a pass during the first half against the Montana State Bobcats at Autzen Stadium. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Will redshirt freshman cornerback Ify Obidegwu and true freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. be able to contain Penn State's revamped wide receiver corps, highlighted by Tebor Pena and Kyron Hudson?

Ducks defensive backs Dillon Thieneman and Kingston Lopa have been effective in stopping the run, but Oregon will need to generate some pressure from the defensive line in order to slow down Allar and the Nittany Lions.

What Dan Lanning Said About Playing Penn State

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning | Oregon Ducks on SI Jake Bunn

After beating Oregon State, Ducks coach Dan Lanning was asked a few questions about Penn State. While Lanning did not reveal too much, he certainly seems to be looking forward to testing himself and his team:

“They're really talented. Schematically, as challenging as anybody we'll play, as far as what they present on both sides of the ball. They play with relentless effort, they play well on special teams. Coach Franklin's teams are always well coached. So, it will be a real challenge for us, but one we're excited to attack," Lanning said.

When Lanning was asked about how he feels about his team and the current roster, he was hesitant to make any bold claims until they compete against an elite program like Penn State.

“I think we'll get a really good gauge of that when we play Penn State. It's a team that's obviously extremely talented. I feel good about our team, I really like our team. This will be a good environment for us to go play in. We're going to be playing people that have a lot of talent as well as a good scheme on both sides of the ball. It’ll be a real challenge for us," the Ducks coach

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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