Oregon Ducks' Initial Postseason Prediction Already Aging Poorly

College football analysts were skeptical about the Oregon Ducks entering the 2025 season. How do the Ducks' current postseason predictions compare to what they looked like in the preseason? How do Oregon's predictions compare to those of other top teams, like the Ohio State Buckeyes and Miami Hurricanes?

Dec 28, 2022; San Diego, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on from the sideline during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels of the 2022 Holiday Bowl at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

The No. 3 Oregon Ducks entered the 2025 season without much attention as a potential contender for the Big Ten title.

Through an undefeated first six weeks of the season, the Ducks are showing that both are plausible scenarios. Many preseason predictions had Oregon suffering an early exit in the postseason or failing to make it entirely. Coach Dan Lanning’s program is already making those preseason predictions look silly.

Initial 12-Team Prediction Ages Poorly

Dec 28, 2022; San Diego, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on from the sideline during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels of the 2022 Holiday Bowl at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

ESPN projected the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) field back in January of 2025, way before the season started. Even though there’s still plenty of time left in the regular season, it’s safe to say that the initial projections were way off.

Two of the nation’s current top-three teams (Oregon and the No. 2 Miami Hurricanes) were missing from the 12-team field. Meanwhile, the Penn State Nittany Lions, Texas Longhorns and North Carolina Tar Heels all made the initial CFP projection.

ESPN really projected UNC and not Oregon in the CFP https://t.co/YT6TFZqRqg

— Official Ohio State DG (@DylanEveryday) October 9, 2025

The Tar Heels now have a zero percent chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). North Carolina is off to a 2-3 overall start, which is good for 11th in the ACC.

Texas and Penn State both tumbled out of the top-25 rankings after both programs suffered their second losses of the season in week 6. The initial projection had the Nittany Lions winning the National Championship.

The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes have the highest chance of winning the title, per the FPI, while the Hurricanes are top-four most likely to make the CFP. The Buckeyes are the only top-three team to make the initial projections, but were predicted to make a first-round exit.

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Oregon’s Current CFP Chances

Oregon fans cheer as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Uncertainty surrounding the Ducks’ young team led analysts to feel unsure about the team’s 2025 outlook prior to the start of the season. Nearly all of Oregon’s offensive and defensive starters graduated or left for the NFL. Many were skeptical about whether quarterback Dante Moore would improve on his true freshman season with the UCLA Bruins in 2023.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon trails only Ohio State in projected percentage to make the CFP through six weeks. The Ducks are also second in chances of winning the National Championship.

Many preseason predictions believed that the Nittany Lions were among the favorites to win it all this season. After Oregon handed them their first loss of the season in week 5, the Ducks put themselves in control of their own destiny.

The Ducks just have to win out to make the CFP, but that’s still easier said than done.

Perhaps Oregon’s biggest remaining test is its week 7 matchup against the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers. Whichever program wins that game will join the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten standings as well as the College Football Playoff race.