Oregon Ducks' Postseason Chances Take A Hit Ahead Of Indiana Hoosiers Game

The No. 3 Oregon Ducks didn’t play in week 6, but their ranking in both the AP Poll and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) was still impacted.

Oregon is set to play another top-10 matchup against the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers in week 7. Ahead of the key game, however, the Ducks saw their résumé take a hit.

Oregon’s Rank Falls

oregon ducks dan lanning indiana hoosiers penn state nittany lions ohio state buckeyes transfer portal recruiting nil autzen — Nov 16, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talks to the media during the post game press conference following the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

FPI measures a team’s true strength on a net points scale by using expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field. It predicts a teams win/loss record and percentage of winning games.

The Ducks held the top spot in the FPI rankings for several weeks but dropped to No. 2 after the bye week. The Ohio State Buckeyes took the No. 1 spot after trailing Oregon in the FPI for most of the season.

Part of the Ducks’ fall in the FPI might have to do with the Penn State Nittany Lions' recent loss to what was previously a winless UCLA Bruins squad. The Bruins currently rank at the bottom in the Big Ten in FPI ranking and No. 78 in the nation.

The Nittany Lions now rank No. 19 in the nation in the FPI. Oregon defeated Penn State in week 5 in double overtime, which was its most notable win of the season up to that point. With the Nittany Lions dropping in FPI score and suffering a second-straight defeat, the Ducks’ performance in that game arguably looks less impressive, which may have led to their current ranking.

Oregon still has the second-best chances of making the College Football Playoff (CFP), making the National Championship and winning the National Championship. Ohio State leads in all three categories. The Buckeyes also have a 38.8 percent chance of winning the conference, compared to the Ducks’ 32.6 percent chance.

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A Win Over The Hoosiers To Boost FPI Score?

A week 7 victory over Indiana could help Oregon regain the top spot in the FPI. The Hoosiers rank third in the Big Ten in the FPI and fourth in the nation.

Indiana joins Oregon and Ohio State in the Big Ten’s top three in percentage to win the conference, playoff chances, chances to make the National Championship and chances to win the National Championship.

The Hoosiers have significantly lower chances of winning the conference in comparison to the Ducks and the Buckeyes, with a 16.3 percent chance. Still, Oregon would likely improve its AP Poll standing and FPI score with a win, given Indiana’s performance early in the season.

The Hoosiers also enter the week 7 game undefeated and coming off a bye week like Oregon. Indiana has dominated in most of its games this season, including a 63-10 victory over No. 9 Illinois early in the season.

ESPN currently gives Oregon a 69.5 percent chance of defeating the Hoosiers. The Ducks will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd, but on paper, it appears to be one of the toughest matchups of the season.

At his week 7 press conference, coach Dan Lanning praised Indiana’s coaching and quarterback play as part of what makes them a difficult challenge.

“Obviously, they're extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. They create a lot of havoc on defense,” Lanning said. “And ultimately, that's what we're counting on our fans to be part of what makes this environment great.”