Why Oregon's Ideal Playoff Path Might Not Include First Round Bye

The Oregon Ducks are currently ranked No. 5 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Following the conclusion of conference title weekend, the final rankings will come out and the 12-team playoff bracket will be set.

Oregon is not in action this weekend so their resume is set in stone. Unless Oregon gets bumped up to the top four to earn a bye, they will be playing in the first round. Despite having to play an extra game, this might not be the worst thing for the Ducks.

History of CFP Teams With Byes

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Bye Rankings Autzen Stadium Ohio State Buckeyes Tulane James Madison Duke Virginia — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks off the field as the Oregon Ducks face the Ohio State Buckeyes Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In 2024, Oregon entered the College Football Playoff with a 13-0 record and ranked as the No. 1 team in the land. Being a top four seed, they earned a first round bye to the quarterfinals. After having about a month off, the Ducks faced the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl with a spot to the semi-finals on the line.

Ohio State was just about a week removed from winning their first round matchup and dominated the Ducks by a final score of 41-21. The Buckeyes ended up carrying this momentum on and won the national championship.

The Ducks were not the only team to lose after their bye week. In fact, all four teams that earned a first round bye; Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State, lost their quarterfinals matchup. This could have just been a result of matchup, but it is still worth noting that teams with a bye are 0-4 in playoff games since the 12-team playoff was added.

Having a bye would give Oregon the week off without sustaining any injuries and a spot in the next round. The flip side of this is Oregon would be playing the quarterfinal game after a full month off. The age old "Rest vs. Rust" debate. So far in this small sample of playoff byes, the teams without the bye have won. Will that trend change this season?

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Potential First Round Opponents

With the ACC and Big Ten championships yet to play, Oregon’s potential opponents they could face in a first round game are starting to narrow down. If the Ducks hold on to their No. 5 ranking they will play the No. 12 seed. These are a few teams they could face at Autzen Stadium in round one.

Tulane — The Green Wave were ranked No. 20 in the country and won the American Conference championship with a win over North Texas. Tulane will be the 12 seed unless Virginia gets upset by Duke.

James Madison — The Dukes won the Sun Belt conference and are now in the mix to earn the No. 12 seed in the playoff. JMU is ranked No. 25 so it is unlikely they will jump Tulane. The Dukes will be big fans of the Duke Blue Devils to upset No. 18 Virginia so JMU would be a higher ranked conference champion.

Duke — The Blue Devils probably don’t have a path to get in, but if the committee feels the need to let a five-loss Duke team to give the ACC a team, Duke would be going to Eugene for a 12v5 matchup.

Virginia — For Virginia to play Oregon, they will have to first beat Duke. The No. 18 Cavaliers would seem to be an 11 seed if they win that game, needing Oregon to be a No. 6 to make that happen. The committee could also have Tulane jump Virginia if they deem the win over Duke to “not be impressive” and slate the Cavs No. 12.